BROOKLYN — The second longest playoff drought in NBA history may be coming to
an end.
With their trade for Jimmy Butler on Thursday, the Minnesota Timberwolves have
accelerated the development of their young core and almost guaranteed that they
will reach the postseason for the first time since 2004. Butler is an All-Star
and an impact player on both ends of the floor.
Ultimately though, it will be up to the two No. 1 picks on the Wolves’ roster to
make the trade worthwhile and take the Wolves to the next level.
It is fair to label the 2016-17 Timberwolves a disappointment. After hiring Tom
Thibodeau as team president and head coach and with the development of two of
the last three No. 1 picks, they took only a small step forward (two games) in
the standings, finishing 10 games out of a playoff spot.
The biggest disappointment was their lack of progress on defense, where
Thibodeau was supposed to make a big impact after coaching four top-five
defenses in his five seasons in Chicago. The Wolves ranked 26th on that end of
the floor last season, doing a particularly poor job of protecting the basket.
Butler will help the defense. He was a big part of two of those top-five
defenses Thibodeau had in Chicago and a key to the Bulls’ sixth-ranked defense
last season. He gives Minnesota more athleticism and versatility on the
perimeter.
But for the Wolves to be a good defensive team, they will need more commitment
from Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns. Their defensive issues were often
effort-related, and the two former No. 1 picks were two of the biggest culprits
on the roster when it came to focus and energy on that end of the floor.
Minnesota allowed 110.7 points per 100 possessions (a rate which would have
ranked last in the league) with Wiggins and Towns on the floor together.
Kevin Garnett wasn’t necessarily missed on the floor, but his voice was missed
in Towns’ ear. The Wolves needed that leadership that Garnett provided in the
previous season and maybe the 27-year-old Butler can be the adult the young
Wolves need in their locker room, the guy who can get Towns and Wiggins that
they have to be better defensively to get where they want to go in this league.
With Butler in Minnesota, the Wolves now have to decide if Ricky Rubio is the
right point guard for the rest of the group. Rubio is a terrific distributor and
one of the best defenders at the point guard position. But six years into his
career, he remains a poor shooter from distance. He shot 44.0 percent from
mid-range, the 25th best mark among 70 players who attempted at least 200
mid-range shots last season.
Being a good mid-range shooter isn’t as good as being an average 3-point
shooter, though. Shooting 44.0 percent from mid-range gets you 0.88 points per
shot, well below the league average (for all shots) of 1.03. The average 3-point
shooter (at 35.8 percent) earns 1.07 points per shot, but Rubio has shot just
31.5 percent from beyond the arc in his career, just 30.6 percent last season.
Last season, Thibodeau put the ball in the hands of Wiggins and Towns more often
than they had it in the past. Now, Minnesota has added third non-point guard to
make plays, making Rubio’s own playmaking less off an asset and his shooting
more of a liability. If you’re going to run the offense through your wings and
one of your bigs, it becomes more important to have a point guard who can shoot.
The Wolves don’t have much flexibility under the salary cap to add other pieces.
There are other teams that can use a player like Rubio, but he’d still have
value in Minnesota, especially if he can add range to his improving jumper.
With the Golden State Warriors looking like the clear favorites to win the next
two or three championships, it’s understandable why teams are looking long-term
for their window of contention. But the Wolves need to go from bad to good
before they can even think about becoming great. They need to end that playoff
drought.
The trade for Butler was a no-brainer for Minnesota, especially when you
consider that he’s under contract for two more seasons at less than $20 million
per year and that Zach LaVine probably won’t be fully recovered from his knee
injury until his rookie contract has expired. Butler is a huge upgrade from
LaVine and immediately makes the Wolves a better team on both ends of the floor.
But for the trade to really pay off, Towns and Wiggins need to take the next
step in their personal development. That begins with better effort on defense.
John Schuhmann is a staff writer for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his
archive here and follow him on Twitter.
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