Heading into this week, three teams have clinched playoff berths – Minnesota,
Los Angeles and Connecticut – while no teams have been mathematically eliminated
from playoff contention just yet. As the push towards the postseason continues,
we look at one question for each team to answer before the regular season ends
on September 3.
1. Minnesota Lynx
Last Week’s Ranking: 1 2017 Record: 21-4; This Week: 1-1 OffRtg: 107.3 (2);
DefRtg: 95.3 (1); NetRtg: 12.0 (1); TS%: 56.0 (3)
Can they win the title without Lindsay Whalen?
There’s a reason that Whalen is the WNBA’s all-time leader in wins with 307 in
her 14-year career. Since she was sidelined with a broken hand on August 4, the
Lynx have gone just 1-2, including a home loss to the Sparks in the second of
three Finals rematches. While there is still a chance Whalen could return this
season – no timeline has been given for her recovery – the Lynx must prepare to
enter the postseason without her. Up next, Minnesota faces five of its next
seven games on the road, beginning with a trip to Seattle on Wednesday (10 ET,
NBA TV).
2. Los Angeles Sparks
Last Week’s Ranking: 2 2017 Record: 19-8; This Week: 1-1 OffRtg: 106.2 (3);
DefRtg: 98.7 (2); NetRtg: 7.5 (2); TS%: 56.3 (2)
Can they improve on the road?
While the Sparks are the best team at home (12-1), they are just .500 (7-7) on
the road. Just last week, they picked up a big road win over Minnesota, but
followed it up with a 14-point loss at New York. As the Sparks look to maintain
a tight grip on their No. 2 playoff seed, they must play three of their next
four games on the road. L.A. holds a 1.5 games edge and owns the tiebreaker
against No. 3 Connecticut, but the Sun are unbeaten since the All-Star break.
3. Connecticut Sun
Last Week’s Ranking: 3 2017 Record: 17-9; This Week: 2-0 OffRtg: 107.8 (1);
DefRtg: 101.0 (5); NetRtg: 6.7 (3); TS%: 54.0 (5)
How will they react on the playoff stage?
The Sun have won a league-high five games in a row and secured their first
playoff berth since 2012 over the weekend. Not only were none of the players on
the current Sun roster on that 2012 playoff team, most of them weren’t even in
the WNBA at that point. The Sun are in great position to secure a top four seed,
which guarantees them at least a first-round bye. When they do open the
postseason, it will be the first playoff games for seven of the 12 players on
the roster. The rest have a combined 51 playoff games played.
4. Washington Mystics
Last Week’s Ranking: 4 2017 Record: 16-10; This Week: 1-0 OffRtg: 105.6 (4);
DefRtg: 101.0 (6); NetRtg: 4.6 (4); TS%: 53.1 (7)
Can they hold their spot without EDD?
As we detailed in last week’s look at the playoff picture, the race to secure a
first-round bye is going to be fierce over the next few weeks. Currently slotted
at No. 4, Washington holds a 1.5 game lead over New York and a 2.5 game lead
over Phoenix. In terms of tie-breakers, the season series with both teams are
tied at 1-1 and have one more game coming up. The first of those tests comes
against Phoenix on Friday in D.C. While the Mercury got back their injured star
Brittney Griner over the weekend, the Mystics will continue to be without Elena
Delle Donne as they look to hold onto their position.
5. New York Liberty
Last Week’s Ranking: 7 2017 Record: 15-12; This Week: 3-0 OffRtg: 101.1 (8);
DefRtg: 100.7 (4); NetRtg: 0.4 (6); TS%: 51.4 (10)
Can they score enough in the playoffs?
The Liberty are one of four teams to average fewer than 80 points per game and
are the only one of those teams in the playoff picture. New York has
consistently had a great defense and a shaky offense. Dating back to 2014, their
defense has ranked 4th, 1st, 3rd and currently 4th. Meanwhile, their offense has
ranked 12th, 10th, 11th and currently 8th. The Liberty have made two playoff
appearances in that time and only advanced one round back in 2015. They were
knocked out in a single-elimination game last year by Phoenix.
6. Phoenix Mercury
Last Week’s Ranking: 5 2017 Record: 14-13; This Week: 1-1 OffRtg: 103.4 (7);
DefRtg: 102.2 (7); NetRtg: 1.2 (5); TS%: 54.7 (4)
With Griner back, are they set to rise?
After going 3-5 without Brittney Griner as the WNBA’s leading scorer was
recovering from knee and ankle injuries, the Mercury lost to the Storm in her
first game back on the court. Phoenix is off until Friday, which gives them time
to acclimate Griner back into the mix before hitting the road to open a
four-game stretch against the top four teams in the league – at Washington, at
Connecticut, at Minnesota and home against Los Angeles.
7. Chicago Sky
Last Week’s Ranking: 9 2017 Record: 11-16; This Week: 1-0 OffRtg: 99.5 (9);
DefRtg: 103.1 (8); NetRtg: -3.6 (9); TS%: 53.5 (6)
Can they keep this up?
After winning five of six games prior to the All-Star break, the Sky stumbled
out the gate to open the second half of the season as they dropped three
straight. Just when their playoff hopes looked dashed, the Sky bounced back with
three straight wins to put themselves back in the playoff scene. Overall, the
Sky are 8-4 in their last 12 games and 11-16 overall. Those 16 losses match No.
7 Dallas (13-16) and No. 9 Seattle (11-16) as those three teams battle for the
final two playoff spots. The Sky and Wings are tied at 1-1 this season with one
more matchup (8/30), while the Sky are up 1-0 on Seattle with two more matchups
(8/20 and 9/3). All three of those games that could determine tiebreakers will
be played in Chicago, where the Sky are just 4-7 on the season, but have won two
straight.
8. Dallas Wings
Last Week’s Ranking: 6 2017 Record: 13-14; This Week: 0-2 OffRtg: 103.6 (6);
DefRtg: 107.8 (12); NetRtg: -4.2 (10); TS%: 52.1 (9)
Can they find consistency?
The Wings continue to take a step forward immediately followed by a step back.
Coming off wins over the Storm and the defending champion Sparks, Dallas was
unable to keep the momentum going last week with losses to Phoenix and
Connecticut. While the road loss to the Sun was not unexpected, the loss at home
to Phoenix, without Brittney Griner, was a tough one to take. Especially after
the Wings built a six-point lead in overtime before being outscored 11-5 over
the final two-and-a-half minutes. Only San Antonio has played as many games as
Dallas (29), so there are only five games left for them to secure their playoff
berth and prepare for their first postseason in Dallas.
9. Seattle Storm
Last Week’s Ranking: 8 2017 Record: 11-16; This Week: 1-1 OffRtg: 104.4 (5);
DefRtg: 105.9 (10); NetRtg: -1.5 (7); TS%: 57.8 (1)
Will a coaching change be the answer?
After falling to 10-16 on the season, the Storm decided a change of leadership
was needed as they relieved Jenny Boucek of head coaching duties and named
assistant Gary Kloppenburg the interim head coach. Seattle won its first outing
with Kloppenburg calling the shots as they snapped a four-game losing streak
with an impressive 98-89 win in Phoenix to spoil Brittney Griner’s return to the
court. It was just the third win away from Seattle for the Storm this season,
which closes its season with four of five on the road. However, this week they
open with a pair of home games against the Lynx (Wednesday, 10 ET, NBA TV) and
the suddenly hot Stars (Friday, 10 ET, NBA TV).
10. San Antonio Stars
Last Week’s Ranking: 12 2017 Record: 7-22; This Week: 1-1 OffRtg: 95.8 (12);
DefRtg: 103.9 (9); NetRtg: -8.2 (11); TS%: 50.9 (11)
Why couldn’t this have happened sooner?
Over the past two weeks, the Stars have been one of the hottest teams in the
league, winning four of their last five games, with all four wins coming at
home. While San Antonio has not been mathematically eliminated from the
playoffs, it would take a miracle for the 7-22 team to leap past the four teams
ahead of them. San Antonio is five games back of No. 8 Chicago with only six
games to play. While all signs point to a return to the lottery, the young Stars
will look to close out the regular season strong and look to carry that momentum
into next season.
11. Atlanta Dream
Last Week’s Ranking: 10 2017 Record: 10-18; This Week: 0-3 OffRtg: 97.5 (11);
DefRtg: 100.6 (3); NetRtg: -3.1 (8); TS%: 49.2 (12)
Can they get back on track before its too late?
In their first game after the All-Star break, the Dream beat the Mercury to
improve to 10-11 on the season as Layshia Clarendon became just the sixth player
in WNBA history to record a triple-double. However, the next day, after one of
Clarendon’s assists was rescinded, the triple-double was gone and since then so
has winning basketball in the ATL. The Dream have lost seven straight games,
while averaging just 72.4 points per game during that stretch – six points fewer
than any other team. Atlanta has the third-ranked defense in the WNBA, but their
offense is second to last and they are the only team with a true shooting
percentage below 50 percent. Even with their struggles over the past three
weeks, the Dream remain in playoff contention – just 1.5 games back of No. 8
Chicago with six games to play. The first is Tuesday, when the Dream host the
East-leading Sun (7 ET, NBA TV).
12. Indiana Fever
Last Week’s Ranking: 11 2017 Record: 9-19; This Week: 0-2 OffRtg: 98.6 (10);
DefRtg: 107.5 (11); NetRtg: -8.8 (12); TS%: 52.2 (8)
Is this the end of the playoff streak?
The last time the Indiana Fever did not make the WNBA Playoffs was back in 2004.
No player on the current Fever team was playing in the WNBA the last time that
happened. To put it in perspective, 2004 was Diana Taurasi’s rookie year and she
just became the league’s all-time leading scorer. That WNBA-record streak of 12
straight playoff appearances is now in serious danger of ending as the Fever are
just 9-19 after losing seven of their last eight games. And to make matters
worse, their next three games are against Minnesota (21-4), Washington (16-10)
and New York (15-12).
