There are good prospects among the small forward crop in this year’s NBA Draft. But there are few that light up the voices and faces of NBA personnel people. You will almost certainly be betting on the come if you take a three early — though it may well be worth the wait in time.
And for teams picking in the Lottery, what do they have but time?
Kevin Durant wasn’t Kevin Durant his first season in Seattle (sniff), when he was toggled between shooting guard and small forward. It took Scottie Pippen years to learn what it took to defend at an elite level. And as the league continues to downsize, having a player who is comfortable both scoring and defending on the wings will become even more important. Versatility will become as valuable as talent. The upside for many of this year’s top three prospects is that, as they put on weight and gain more experience, they could excel at both forward positions.
It’s in this spirit of positivity that we continue our look at the 2016 Draft.
We go 1 through 5 when making our assessments, so we’ll continue with guards, and go every other week with the other three spots, alternating with the Morning Tip. (The full Big Board schedule is below, FYI.)
The evaluations go in this order: point guard, shooting guard, small forward, power forward, center. After this week, we’ll continue with positions every other week (April 4, April 18, May 2, May 16), the last coming the day before the NBA’s Draft Lottery, on May 17.
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DA’s Big Board Schedule
POINT GUARDS | SHOOTING GUARDS | SMALL FORWARDS | POWER FORWARDS (May 2) | CENTERS (May 16)
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Small Forwards
A note on the rankings:
This is not a predictor of when these players will be taken. These rankings, based on discussions with dozens of NBA and college coaches, and NBA college scouts and team executives, address the question of how ready players are to play the position which they are assigned: In other words, if there was a game tonight, who would play better at that position tonight, not in three years. Players are ranked based on the position that the coaches and scouts believe is their best NBA position, and even then, there is always disagreement between teams.
We include underclassmen that are expected to declare for the Draft, or are at least thinking strongly about it. No one who hasn’t thought about declaring is going to be swayed by seeing his name on a Draft board. So we include everyone.
Players are listed at the position at which NBA people believe they’ll play as pros.
For example: there are two players who’ll definitely be taken high in the first round of this year’s Draft — Kentucky freshman Jamal Murray and Michigan State’s senior, Denzel Valentine. Both have been on the ball for much of the season for their respective teams. But the vast majority of NBA people I’ve spoken with believe that Murray’s best position in the pros will be at the point, while Valentine will be a two — or, maybe, a point forward. So Murray is on the Big Board as a point, while Valentine isn’t.
Again: This is not a mock Draft (though one of those is, sadly, coming).They are a complete waste of time, especially this long before June. No one has any idea what will happen between now and then; we don’t even know all the teams that will be in the Lottery, much less when they’ll be picking. We don’t know if there will be a major injury that will impact what a team wants or needs. What follows is a rough consensus of what NBA personnel people, GMs and coaches, and college coaches that I trust — and that, obviously, can’t be quoted by name — believe is the pro potential for this year’s crop of college and international players.
In the interim, what follows is a rough consensus of what NBA personnel people, GMs and coaches, and college coaches that I trust — and that, obviously, can’t be quoted by name — believe is the pro potential for this year’s crop of college and international players.
? “Sleepers” are players almost certain to go in the second round but who may have first-round talent or otherwise have an impact on the teams that select them if they overcome perceived shortcomings.
? “Some Scouts Like” will refer to players whose intentions are not yet known for certain, but who are viewed as potentially draftable if they do. Emphasis on “potentially.”
? After the Chicago pre-Draft combine, we will update the Board with official heights and weights, and add player wingspans as measured there. For now, player heights and weights are their listed ones from their schools and/or their pro teams if they are international prospects.
David Aldridge’s Big Board 2016: Small Forwards
RANK | NAME | SCHOOL/TEAM | CLASS/AGE | HT | WT > PROJECTED
1. Brandon Ingram | Duke | Freshman | 6-9 | 190 | High Lottery
2. Jaylen Brown | California | Freshman | 6-7 | 225 | Mid Lottery
3. Taurean Prince | Baylor | Senior | 6-8 | 220 | Mid-Late First
4. DeAndre Bembry | St. Joseph’s | Junior | 6-6 | 210 | Late 1st/Early 2nd
5. Paul Zipser | Bayern Munich | 22 | 6-8 | 209 | Second Round
6. Jaron Blossomgame | Clemson | Junior | 6-7 | 220 | Second Round
7. Justin Jackson | North Carolina | Sophomore | 6-8 | 200 | Second Round
8. Dorian Finney-Smith | Florida | Senior | 6-8 | 220 | Second Round
9. Rade Zagorac | Mega Vizura | 20 | 6-9 | 205 | Second Round
10. Daniel Hamilton | Connecticut | Sophomore | 6-7 | 195 | Second Round
Honorable Mention: Troy Hamilton (JR), 6-7, 215, Indiana; James Webb III (JR), 6-9, 202, Boise State; Jake Layman, 6-9, 220, Maryland; Georges Niang, 6-8, 230, Iowa State
Some Scouts Like: Trevon Bluiett (SO), 6-6, 208, Xavier; Malik Pope (SO), 6-10, 210, San Diego State
* = opted not to enter NBA Draft
Ingram has potential to be a solid wing
The Kid from Kinston favors the Son of Seat Pleasant in build. Whether he’ll ever have the game to match remains to be seen.
But many scouts have seen enough of Duke’s Brandon Ingram, even after just one season, to have him penciled in as a top two or three pick in the first round of the Draft. It’s high cotton for a kid that won’t turn 19 until next September. But that’s exactly how good Ingram was for the Blue Devils, winning ACC Freshman of the Year honors and making second team all-ACC.
Understand — there is far from uniform opinion about Ingram, listed at 190 pounds. There are questions about whether he’ll ever be able to hold enough weight to hold his own in the NBA. But the potential for him to become a dominant offensive wing is there.
“Do you have concerns today? Yeah. But when he’s 22, he won’t look like this,” a Northwest Division executive said.
“I like his length,” a Pacific Division personnel man added. “I think the fact that he looks like he’s still growing. Certainly, he’s got a young body. He’s a young, young freshman. It’s just his length and his wingspan (unofficially, 7-foot-3) are over the top. When you watch him play, he competes. He competes at the defensive end, he competes at the offensive end. He’s chippy. He’s in there competing. His body doesn’t always allow him to come out on top, whether it be getting up into somebody and defending in the post, he often gets knocked off balance because he’s not strong enough right now. But it looks to me like his will is there. He wants to be an all around player.”
Playing almost 35 minutes a night, Ingram averaged 17.3 points per game, sixth-best in the ACC and tops among freshmen, along with 6.8 rebounds, shooting 41.3 percent on 3-pointers (74-for-179). That sample size is big enough for NBA people to think Ingram could become a solid perimeter shooter and a potentially fierce 3-and-D player.
“He’s as good as an offensive player scoring, combined with the size and talent, as there is,” said a college coach whose team played Duke this season. “This guy’s got the skill with that body. Does he look bigger at some point? I don’t know. The game is so similar; those guys are facing guys off the dribble. They’re isolation players. He’s got some sort of post game, but his game was flying with the ball at that size, and it made you feel, wow, this guy’s a joke, he’s flying to the rim.”
Ingram started slow but came on strong for Duke during its run to the Sweet 16, scoring in double figures in 31 of 36 games and going for 20 or more points 14 times. In the Blue Devils’ three NCAA games, he averaged 23 points per game and shot 37.5 percent behind the arc.
He will have to get stronger, though, once he gets to the league, and it won’t happen overnight. Some who’ve seen him do not believe he’s an explosive athlete. That gives teams some pause. It’s hard to take someone in the Lottery and then ask fans to be patient.
“He’s a long way from being ready,” a Southeast Division personnel man said. “I can see the potential in terms of scoring, but you run him out there No. 1 with that narrow body?”
Said a Southeast Division scout: “he’s got some disappearance in his game. Not very big. Not very fast. I get his talent. But I don’t get that he has that prodigy kind of feel to his game.”
Yet Ingram’s supporters counter that with the NBA game shrinking in size day by day, he won’t have to bang with so many bulky power forwards and centers going forward, so his thin frame won’t matter as much, or at least for not as long as it may have in the past.
“Obviously he’s not going to become a Dwight Howard physique,” the Pacific Division man said, “but I always go back, when people bring up guys at his size, I bring up Reggie (Miller). Reggie never really put much weight on, but not only was a prolific scorer; he was one of the most durable players that’s been around in the modern era. He conditioned, he worked on weights, he did strength training. He wasn’t trying to bulk up, but he was very durable, and pound for pound, he was very strong. The way that Ingram’s built, with his length and wing span, once he puts on 18, 20, 22 pounds of desirable weight, and most of that will be strength the next couple of years, I think he’ll be just fine.”
Brown must learn how to play without ball
There’s no question about the physical gifts of California freshman Jaylen Brown, already an explosive 6-foot-7 and 225 pounds. He was the only first-year player to be named first-team all-Pac 12, along with winning the conference’s Freshman of the Year award. But there are questions about his game going forward.
No one game should define a player, for good or ill, but Brown picked a bad day to have his worst game of the season — Cal’s first-round upset loss in the NCAA Tournament to Hawaii, when Brown scored just four points, went 1 of 6 from the floor, committed seven turnovers and fouled out in just 17 minutes.
To be fair, in the game against Hawaii, California played without both senior starting point guard Tyrone Wallace and forward Jabari Bird. And during the season, Brown had to share the spotlight at Cal with Ivan Rabb, the freshman power forward who also is expected to be a high first-round Draft pick. That would explain in part Brown’s OK (but not great) averages of 14.6 points and 6.4 rebounds. But only in part.
“He’s a tremendous talent,” said a college coach whose team played Cal this season. “That’s all there. (But) I don’t think he knows how to play, especially without the ball. And that’s why you see those numbers and say how can that happen? He’s oozing with talent. Decision making is going to be important for him.”
Brown was a five-star prospect out of Wheeler High in Georgia — among whose alumni is Shareef Abdur-Rahim, taken third overall in the 1996 Draft. But his one year at Cal was an up and down one, as he faced some players just as big and strong as he is. And he shot just 29 percent on threes. That’s a red flag.
“I think … he played in a suburban basketball league, where every game was Tuesday or Friday night, and he was the most gifted, imposing human being on earth, and because of that he averaged 28 and 15,” one scout said. “He hasn’t evolved. It’s better, but it’s not good enough. You’re betting on the come. You’re not going to fail, because he’s too physically gifted. But if you’re taking a guy seventh or eighth overall, you want a little more bang for your buck. Now, you may get it. But I can’t tell you when.”
Brown’s NBA supporters, and there are many, point out that his inconsistencies earlier in the season were to expected from a freshman trying to live up to the hype. “Sometimes, he got frustrated,” a Pacific Division executive said. “But he’s really young.”
Said another executive from the Northwest Division: “he’s not a great shooter and he has to work on his jump shot. But he’s a kid who can get to the basket, he’s long at the basket and he’s strong at the basket. He’s intriguing in that way. You can always work on his shot. He’s a great kid. I hear he’s a well-developed kid (Brown took a postgraduate class during his first semester at Berkeley). I think he can learn the things we’re going to try to be teaching him.”
At Cal, Brown frequently got the ball and pushed it, or got the ball early in the shot clock, in transition, and was able to drive it and score. “He basically dictated when he shot the ball,” one scout said. That will be different in the pros.
“For him, he’s going to have to be in position where he has to be able to play when he doesn’t have the basketball,” the college coach said. “He’s not going to be a point guard. He has to be ready to catch the ball, come over picks, sprint down the floor. He can impact the game in so many ways, but he has to learn how to play. Where he lands is going to be important for him. He’s going to need to be coached. If he doesn’t, he’s going to be another athlete out there running and jumping … but, he’s a no-brainer Lottery pick. I think he’s a good kid. I don’t think he’s going to fight being coached.”
Ingram and Brown are the only small forward prospects who will be in the Lottery. There’s a dropoff afterward, though there will still be several good prospects. (A fellow with big hands but no jumper named Kawhi Leonard went 15th in the 2011 Draft.)
Prince faces position switch
Baylor’s Taurean Prince made his second all-Big 12 first team this season, after being named the conference’s Sixth Man of the Year as a junior. The 6-foot-7, 225-pound forward played a lot of power forward for the Bears, but will have to transition to the three in the pros, according to most scouts. His improvement in four seasons at Baylor, along with the rep of being a gym rat, has him as a mid-to-late first-round prospect.
“He’s gotten much, much better,” said a college coach whose team played Baylor this year. “Each year he’s gotten better and better. He’s been able to add things to his game. I would say he’s got to be a three, that big wing. He’s got long arms, good wingspan. He’s a streak shooter, not a good shooter. I’d say he’s more of a scorer than a shooter. He’s not going to blow by you, but he can get by you because he’s so long. He’s not going to straight line drive you.”
Prince led Baylor in scoring and to a No. 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but the Bears were upset by 12th-seeded Yale in the first round.
“His comfort level for most of his life was at the four,” a Western Conference scout said. “Now he’s morphing into a three. He dribbles it better than I thought. He shoots it decently. I don’t know if he’s changing your life, but if you’re taking him in the 20s, he’s a nice player. He can rebound. He can guard a little bit.”
The Bears also played a lot of zone, something Prince will not be able to do much in the NBA.
“It probably has to be the right fit,” the college coach said. “They mixed a little man later in the year, but he played mostly zone. When they played man he played okay, but he played his man more and got away with it because he’s so long. I really can’t say if he can move his feet. He’s long enough and athletic enough that he should be a good defender.”
Bembry a sure first-round talent
St. Joseph’s junior DeAndre Bembry might well wind up being a shooting guard, or a point guard, in the NBA — he played multiple positions in high school and in college, where he teamed with New York Knicks guard Langston Galloway as a freshman. For now, he’s thought of as a three. His versatile game was the catalyst for a surprising and successful season for the Hawks, who went 28-8 and made the second round of the NCAA Tournament, battling top seed Oregon in the West Region before falling 69-64.
Bembry was outstanding all season, winning Atlantic 10 Player of the Year honors as well as making the A-10’s All Defensive Team, with averages of 17 points per game, 7.8 rebounds and 4.5 assists. He was third in the nation in total minutes played (1,341) and teamed with senior forward Isaiah Miles to lead St. Joe’s.
“He’s terrific,” a Northwest Division man says. “But he’s small. I look at him as more of a two. I just call them wings. For me, they’re almost interchangeable. He’s really good. He’s not a great shooter. He’s a hell of a player. He can really pass, and I don’t mean a little bit. I mean, he can really pass. He can really rebound. He can guard. I don’t think his shot (just 27 percent on threes last season) is broken. It’s a confidence thing with him; he misses a couple and I think he gets gun shy. But he’s going to go in the first round. I think he goes ahead of Prince. But I don’t know.”
Zipser shows improved marksmanship
Germany’s Paul Zipser is an older prospect (22; yes, that’s considered old for NBA rookies these days) who has potential as a defensive wing (he blocked 1.7 shots this past season for Bayern Munich, his current team). He showed his 3-point potential during Eurocup, shooting 47 percent behind the arc in 20 minutes per game. He’s currently projected as a second-round pick.
Several underclassmen have declared for the Draft, but have yet to hire agents, meaning they could return to college if they pull out of the Draft 10 days after the Chicago Combine, which runs from May 11th to the 15th.
Blossomgame just keeps getting better
Clemson’s Jaron Blossomgame has yet to decide whether to declare or return for his senior season. His resume is already full: first-team all-ACC and Most Improved Player. He will have to make the transition to playing the three in the NBA after spending most of his time at the four for the Tigers.
He has dramatically improved over three seasons, going from a 20 percent 3-point shooter as a freshman to 44.6 percent last season. He shot 59.6 percent from the free throw line as a freshman … and 78.2 percent last season. And he had several outstanding performances: 25 points and seven rebounds in an upset win over Miami, 31 points against fourth-ranked Virginia and 30 points and six rebounds against Notre Dame.
“He’s obviously one of the most improved players in our league the last couple of years,” an ACC coach said of Blossomgame. “He’s a matchup problem, too strong for the threes, and too fast for the fours. He really improved his shot, he rebounds, he’s a very good athlete bordering on world class. I like him. I don’t know in the NBA how that fits. He probably can be a 3-and-D guy if he’s a good enough shooter, because I think he can defend the wing.”
Clemson used Blossomgame in all kinds of different ways — in the post, as a stretch four, in pick-and-pops, lifting him out of the corner. And he did well at most all of them, as well as playing solid defense at both positions when asked.
“He’s improved his stroke, for sure,” a Southeast Division scout said.
“He’s a straight line ballhandler right now. He’s got to work at that. When he shot the ball, he definitely was more accurate this year than he was last year. When I saw him last year, he was just athletic. His mechanics weren’t bad. But this year, he definitely improved. He’s got to add another layer, put the ball on the floor and create some space. Right now, he’s got a threes body, or size, but he’s got more of a four game. He can’t create a shot for himself or a teammate outside of a straight line. But he’s got freak athleticism.”
That’s even more impressive considering Blossomgame has overcome three leg injuries since high school, including a horrific compound leg fracture suffered while playing AAU in 2012. He’s subsequently had two operations on the leg, and suffered a hairline fracture in the same leg at the end of his freshman season at Clemson.
But, he’s been healthy ever since — even though scouts see him jumping off of two legs now rather than one.
As Blossomgame decides what to do, he’ll surely examine the trajectory of former teammate K.J. McDaniels, who declared for the Draft in 2014 after leading the Tigers to the NIT semifinals as a junior. McDaniels just missed out on the first round, going to the 76ers with the second pick of the second round in 2014. He showed great potential in Philly, but was traded during his rookie season to the Rockets, where he’s subsequently signed a three-year deal and has split time this season between Houston and the Rockets’ NBA D-League affiliate in Rio Grande Valley.
There’s never a guarantee of what will happen, but most NBA types currently have Blossomgame as a second-round pick as well.
“I like him. But I think he needs to go back,” the Southeast scout said. “He can become better putting it on the floor, creating something for a teammate or himself. He needs to add that extra layer to his game. That could get stymied in our league. He may not get the minutes, he may not get the opportunity to play as much, and when he does play, he could get caught into that, ‘what do I have to do (on the floor) to play fast?’ “
But if Blossomgame stays in the Draft, he could help himself.
“He’s a guy, if he has good workouts, he could move up, because of his athleticism,” a Western Conference executive said. “He’s not a bad face-up shooter. He’s got to learn to move a little bit better without the ball. But he’s such a good athlete, I think he can be a pretty good defender in time.”
Jackson may hit stride in NBA
North Carolina sophomore Justin Jackson averaged just 12.2 points per game and shot just 29 percent on threes. He shot it better in the NCAA Tournament, including scoring 16 points in 28 minutes in Carolina’s Final Four win over Syracuse.
“He played better this year than he did the last, but he didn’t have the impact that I thought he was going to have,” an Eastern Conference scout said. “When I saw him in the (Nike) Global Challenge (in high school in 2014), I thought, this boy is going to be off the charts. I was like, man, he’s baby KD. He played better this year, but I think he needs to come back. He’s not ready to start, and he struggled being a backup. But, he’s not.
“With all that said, I didn’t see, what I saw when he was at the Global Challenge, I was like, this kid’s a shot-maker. He kind of became one-dimensional at North Carolina. I’m not a Hall of Fame coach, but I think a lot of his offensive instincts got suppressed within that system, or within his head. He just wasn’t the same guy.”
Said an ACC coach: “I think he’s a good shooter. Their system is so different. Everything they do is a little bit different. A lot doesn’t translate from their system to the NBA, other than they learn to play with other good players. No neck. Long, long arms. Plays in transition. I don’t know what his percentages are, but I would think he’s going to be a very, very good shot maker at the next level. Very athletic. I think he’s high character, a quintessential sort of win forward. You don’t see him in too many pick and rolls. I think he’s a very high-level talent.”
Jackson was just fourth on the Tar Heels in scoring, but NBA types know that that can be misleading with Carolina players.
“I want to like him, because he had the great reputation out of high school,” a Northwest Division executive said. “He can really pass. In Carolina’s system, where they all share the ball, he had three assists a game. That’s really a lot. But he just doesn’t make shots. And, he’s really thin.”
Portsmouth play helps Finney-Smith’s stock
Florida senior Dorian Finney-Smith helped himself last week with a solid performance at the Portsmouth Invitational Tournament in his Virginia hometown. The second-team all-SEC selection averaged 18 points and 9.7 rebounds in three games at the PIT, helping his chances to be taken in the second round. But he’ll have to show a much improved perimeter game to have a real chance to make it at the next level.
Finney-Smith finished fifth in the SEC in rebounds this season at 8.2 per game.
Keep your eyes on Zagorac
Serbian forward Rade Zagorac, a 6-foot-9 20-year-old, plays for Mega Vizura in Belgrade, the same team that swingman prospect Timothe Luwawu plays for. Zagorac has averaged 12 points per game this season for Mega Vizura, primarily coming off the bench.
“Like a lot of the Serbian kids, he’s a tough kid,” one scout said. “I saw him in February a couple of times. He’s not a super athlete or anything like that, but he pretty well understands angles. His shot, he can stretch the floor. And I think he’s a good enough ballh andler where, depending on the team he’s on, a team with some spacing … he’ll need to be on a team where guys can create and he can be kind of a secondary ball handler, a one-two-three dribble type of guy. I look for him to kind of climb up as we go along here.”
Hamiltion a rebounder … and a project
Connecticut sophomore Daniel Hamilton was a second-team all-American Athletic Conference selection, and was MVP of the AAC Tournament. He is also skinny, at 6-foot-7, 195 pounds. But he displayed a knack for getting on the glass, finishing sixth in the country in defensive rebounding (303 total), averaging 8.9 boards per game for the Huskies.
And, he has a pretty strong pedigree. He has three brothers who have all played or are playing Division I ball: Gary, the oldest, a 6-foot-10 forward who played at the University of Miami from 2002-06 and has played in Japan and Uruguay. Jordan, who played at Texas and was a first-round pick of the Mavs in 2011 and is now with the Pelicans, and Isaac, a junior guard at UCLA who was a second-team all-Pac 12 selection this season.
Hamilton will surely be a long-range project if he’s drafted, or even if he isn’t. But he’s an intriguing prospect with his smarts — “elite IQ,” a Western Conference scout said — and his rebounding prowess, though he has a habit of bending at the waist defensively rather than bending his legs, according to one scout.
“I think he’s got a real good intellect,” another scout said. “He’s got a mature game. Obviously, his family is pretty competitive. I think that has to be taken into the judgment. I was up there in October watching practice…he’s not a wower, I guess. But what he really can do is rebound. I think he rebounds well for his position. He’s not a super athlete, but I think he’s a glue guy you can put in there. I don’t think he’s going to be a star by any stretch, but I think he’s going to be a guy who’s going to be in the league and help you.”
And some notes on the others …
? Xavier sophomore Trevon Bluiett, a first-team all-Big East selection, impresses with his strength, though he only stands 6-6. He puts some scouts in mind of Wes Matthews, though he’s not as athletic as you’d like a potential wing defender to be. “I love his basketball IQ,” a Southeast Division Executive says. “He’s got kind of an old man, European type game. But he’s a little heavy. He’s got kind of some dead legs. But he’s got a terrific feel for the game, and maybe that will get him through.”
? Boise State junior James Webb III was a first-team all-Mountain West selection, averaging 15.8 points and 9.1 rebounds, and has good athletic chops. He shot very well from distance as a sophomore, hitting almost 41 percent on his threes. But that number dropped significantly last season, down to 25 percent.
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DA’s Big Board Schedule
POINT GUARDS | SHOOTING GUARDS | SMALL FORWARDS | POWER FORWARDS (May 2) | CENTERS (May 16)
Longtime NBA reporter and columnist David Aldridge is an analyst for TNT. You can e-mail him here and follow him on Twitter.
The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NBA, its clubs or Turner Broadcasting.
