With three days remaining in the regular season, the playoff picture continues
to come into focus. Let’s break down what we know heading into Friday’s
five-game slate and what’s at stake in each of those games.
What We Know
– Seven of the eight playoff spots are filled with seedings still to be
determined (Seattle, Atlanta, Washington, Connecticut, Los Angeles, Phoenix and
Minnesota have clinched)
– The eighth and final playoff spot will be claimed by either Dallas or Las
Vegas
– Seattle (24-8) is the only team that has clinched a top-two seed and a
double-bye to the semifinals
– Atlanta (22-10) and Washington (21-11) have both clinched a top-four seed,
ensuring a single-bye to the second round
– Los Angeles (19-13) has clinched a top-six seed, ensuring they will host a
playoff game
What Is On The Line Tonight
Minnesota (7th, 17-15) at Connecticut (4th, 19-13), 7 p.m. ET, League Pass
Connecticut controls its own destiny as it aims for a top-four seed and
first-round bye. The No. 4 Sun and No. 5 Sparks have matching 19-13 records, but
the Sun have already locked up the tiebreaker between the teams even with a
final meeting to close the season on Sunday.
While the Sun can’t catch either of the top two seeds, they have an outside shot
of passing Washington for the No. 3 spot. Should the Sun win their final two
games and the Mystics lose their final two games, the two teams would finish
with matching 21-13 records. Since they split their season series, the next
tiebreaker would be better win percentage against teams over .500 at season’s
end.
If that scenario were to play out, the Sun would finish 9-10 against winning
teams, while the Mystics would be 8-11, thus giving the Sun the higher seed. Of
course, both the No. 3 and 4 seeds come with a first-round bye, but earning
home-court advantage in later rounds would be a bonus should the teams meet down
the line.
As for Minnesota, the Lynx sit in the No. 7 seed, which would put them on the
road in the single-elimination first round. In order to supplant Phoenix as the
No. 6 seed, the Lynx need the Mercury to lose at least one of their final two
games (Friday vs. Atlanta, Sunday vs. New York). If the Lynx can make up a game
in the standings and match the Mercury, Minnesota would earn the No. 6 seed by
virtue of the head-to-head tiebreaker. A loss to Connecticut would mean the
Mercury would have to lose both games for the Lynx to have a chance at the No. 6
seed on the final day of the season.
On a side note unrelated to the playoff chase, Friday’s game gives Sun fans one
final chance to pay tribute to former Sun point guard Lindsay Whalen, who
announced her retirement from the WNBA earlier this week. Whalen played her
first six WNBA seasons in Connecticut and helped lead them to two Finals
appearances. While the competition will be fierce once the ball is tipped,
expect a rousing ovation from the Connecticut fans when Whalen is introduced.
Los Angeles (5th, 19-13) at Washington (3rd, 21-11), 7 p.m. ET, NBA TV
The Mystics have already clinched a top-four seed, so they have a first-round
bye locked up no matter what happens over their final two games. Their odds of
catching Atlanta for the No. 2 seed are small as Washington would have to win
out and have the Dream lose out to close the season. Considering both teams are
on extended winning streak – six games for Atlanta, seven games for Washington –
that seems unlikely.
While Washington is nearly locked into the No. 3 spot, the Sparks are trying to
climb into the top four in order to bypass the first round. And they close out
the season with two games against the teams directly in front of them in the
standings – Washington on Friday and Connecticut on Sunday.
A win over the Mystics would earn the head-to-head tiebreaker and set up a
potentially huge game on Sunday in Connecticut should the Sun lose to Minnesota
on Friday. Were that to happen, the winner of the season finale between L.A. and
Connecticut would earn the top-four seed, while the other would be forced to
play in the first round. And if Minnesota were to also knock off Washington on
Sunday, the Sparks could climb all the way to No. 3.
Las Vegas Aces (9th, 14-18) at Dallas Wings (8th, 14-18), 8 p.m. ET, League Pass
While the first two games we have discussed have a lot of ‘ifs’ associated with
them, the matchup between Las Vegas and Dallas is much more cut and dry.
The Aces and Wings are vying for the eighth and final playoff spot and enter
their final meeting of the regular season with matching 14-18 records. The Wings
won the first two games of the season series, so they own the head-to-head
tiebreaker regardless of the outcome of this game.
If Dallas wins, they clinch the eighth playoff spot and eliminate Las Vegas.
Even if Sunday sees the Wings lose in Seattle and the Aces defeat the Dream to
close the season, that would give them matching records again and the Wings
would earn the spot via tiebreaker.
If Las Vegas wins on Friday, they would be one step closer to clinching a
playoff berth after finishing at the bottom of the standings in each of their
final three seasons in San Antonio before relocating this past offseason. The
Aces cannot clinch until Sunday as they would need either a win of their own
(vs. Atlanta) or a loss by the Wings (at Seattle) to clinch the eighth seed.
Atlanta Dream (2nd, 22-10) at Phoenix Mercury (6th, 18-14), 10 p.m. ET, League
Pass
If the Dream can pick up a win over the Mercury in Phoenix, they would ensure
themselves a top-two seed and a double-bye all the way to the semifinals. They
would also keep alive their slim chance to catch Seattle for the No. 1 overall
seed.
Since Atlanta owns the head-to-head tiebreaker with Seattle, if the Dream win
their final two games (at Phoenix, at Las Vegas) and the Storm lose their final
two games (vs. New York, vs. Dallas), the top seed in the playoffs would belong
to Atlanta.
Friday’s contest in Phoenix will be the toughest test that Atlanta has faced
since losing Angel McCoughtry for the season to a knee injury. The Dream are 3-0
so far in her absence, but those wins have come against a struggling Wings team
that has lost nine straight and the 7-25 Liberty. This is their first game
against a team over .500 and one that has already secured a playoff berth.
The Mercury currently sit in the No. 6 spot and their hopes for a top-four seed
and first-round bye are fairly slim heading into the final weekend of the
season. Washington, Connecticut and L.A. all sit ahead of them and are vying for
those two coveted spots and Phoenix holds only one tiebreaker among that group
(vs. Connecticut).
The key for Phoenix heading into their final two games is to hold off Minnesota
and maintain a top-six seed so they are ensured of hosting a playoff game. The
Lynx are one game behind the Mercury, but do own the head-to-head tiebreaker
should the teams finish with matching records.
In an ironic twist, both the Mercury and Lynx have better road records than home
records this year, but there is no doubt that each would prefer to open the
postseason at home rather than on the road in a single-elimination game.
Phoenix is a perfect 4-0 in single-elimination playoff games during the first
two years of the new playoff format. However, they have been unable to win a
game in the best-of-five semifinals.
New York Liberty (11th, 7-25) at Seattle Storm (1st, 24-8), 10 p.m. ET, NBA TV
No game has simpler playoff implications than the nightcap between the Storm and
Liberty. A Seattle win clinches the top record in the WNBA and home-court
advantage throughout the playoffs.
In fact, any combination of a Storm win or Dream loss wraps up the No. 1 overall
seed for Seattle. The Storm could hope for some help from the Mercury to knock
off the Dream, or they can handle their own business by beating the Liberty on
Friday to lock up the top seed prior to Sunday’s season finale.
