The WNBA closes out the 2018 regular season with all 12 teams in action and
playoff implications all over the place. Let’s break things down to lay out the
possible scenarios.
What We Know
– The eight teams that will compete in the 2018 Playoffs are set with Dallas
claiming the final spot Friday against Las Vegas
– The current seedings heading into Sunday’s games are: 1. Seattle, 2. Atlanta,
3. Washington, 4. Connecticut, 5. Los Angeles, 6. Phoenix, 7. Minnesota, 8.
Dallas
– The Storm have clinched the best record in the WNBA and home-court advantage
throughout the playoffs
– The Lynx and Wings are locked into their current seeds – seventh and eighth,
respectively. The other six teams are guaranteed at least one home playoff game
– The other five seeds – Nos. 2 through 6 – are still to be determined based on
the outcomes of Sunday’s games
What Is On The Line Sunday
Los Angeles Sparks at Connecticut Sun, 3 PM ET, Twitter New York Liberty at
Phoenix Mercury, 6 PM ET, ESPN 3
The Sparks and Sun meet for the third and final time this regular season, with
plenty of playoff scenarios floating around this game. Connecticut (20-13), Los
Angeles (19-14) and Phoenix (19-14) are separated by one game heading into the
final day of the season.
Both the Sun and Sparks can still earn the No. 4 seed, while the best that
Phoenix can do is the No. 5 seed. All three teams can fall to the No. 6 seed
depending on what happens Sunday.
The Sun control their own destiny; if they beat the Sparks, then they get the
No. 4 seed and the first-round bye that comes with it. If Connecticut loses to
L.A. then they would need Phoenix to lose to New York in order to get the No. 4
seed.
Let’s break this down: Connecticut has the head-to-head tiebreaker over L.A.
regardless of Sunday’s outcome (2-0 entering Sunday). Phoenix has the
head-to-head tiebreaker over Connecticut (2-1) and Los Angeles has the
head-to-head tiebreaker over Phoenix (2-1).
If L.A. beats Connecticut and Phoenix beats New York, then the Sparks, Sun and
Mercury would all finish at 20-14. With head-to-head records unable to break the
tie, the seedings would be determined based on the best record against teams
.500 or better. That would give L.A. the No. 4 seed, Phoenix the No. 5 seed and
Connecticut the No. 6 seed.
Records against teams .500 or better (assuming L.A. and Phoenix win to set up
the three-way tie) – LAS: 9-10 (.474) – PHX: 8-10 (.444) – CON: 8-11 (.421)
Here’s a quick cheat sheet to reference: – LAS win and PHX win: No. 4 LAS, No. 5
PHX, No. 6 CON – CON win and PHX win: No. 4 CON, No. 5 PHX, No. 6 LAS – PHX
loss, regardless of CON-LAS outcome: No. 4 CON, No. 5 LAS, No. 6 PHX
Take a closer look at that second line. If Connecticut and Phoenix win, Los
Angeles falls to the No. 6 seed, which means a single-elimination first round
game with the No. 7 seed. And that is the Minnesota Lynx. How’s that for a way
to tip off the postseason?!
Atlanta Dream at Las Vegas Aces, 6 PM ET, ESPN 3
Atlanta can clinch the No. 2 seed (and double-bye to the semifinals) with a win
over Las Vegas or a Washington loss to Minnesota. A loss to Las Vegas, leaves
the Dream vulnerable to giving up the coveted top-two seed to Washington.
The Dream and Mystics are currently tied in the standings (22-11) with the Dream
holding the head-to-head tiebreaker (2-1). Therefore the only way for Atlanta to
fall out of the No. 2 seed is to lose to Vegas and have Washington beat
Minnesota in the final game of the night (and regular season).
Here’s a quick cheat sheet to reference: – ATL win, regardless of WAS-MIN
outcome: No. 2 ATL, No. 3 WAS – ATL loss and WAS win: No. 2 WAS, No. 3 ATL – WAS
loss, regardless of ATL-LVA outcome: No. 2 ATL, No. 3 WAS
Indiana Fever at Chicago Sky, 6 PM ET, ESPN 3
This is the second game of a home-and-home back-to-back that has no playoff
implications.
Dallas Wings at Seattle Storm, 7 PM ET, ESPN 3
Both teams are locked into their current seeds, with Seattle owning the No. 1
overall seed and Dallas rounding out the field at the No. 8 spot. Since this
game has no playoff implications, it will be interesting to see how many minutes
the All-Stars in this contest will play.
Liz Cambage essentially wrapped up her first WNBA scoring title with her
43-point barrage against Las Vegas on Friday. At 23.4 points per game, Cambage
sits 1.4 points ahead of Breanna Stewart, who sits in second at 22.0 points per
game. Cambage’s scoring average is currently the fifth highest in WNBA history.
Washington Mystics at Minnesota Lynx, 7 PM ET, ESPN 2
Washington needs a win over Minnesota and an Atlanta loss to Las Vegas in order
to claim the No. 2 seed. Atlanta holds the head-to-head tiebreaker (2-1) so
Washington must finish with a superior record to overtake the Dream. See cheat
sheet referenced above in Dream-Aces matchup.
If Washington is unable to supplant the Dream, they are guaranteed to finish no
lower than the No. 3 seed, which comes with a first-round bye and home playoff
game in the second round.
Minnesota is locked into the No. 7 seed regardless of the outcome of Sunday’s
game.
