Can the LA Clippers (again) survive without Blake Griffin — for the playoffs,
or beyond?
Losing Griffin for the remainder of the playoffs with a plantar plate injury to
his right big toe is the latest misfortune to strike both the five-time All-Star
and the franchise, currently locked in a 2-2 battle with fifth-seeded Utah Jazz
in the first round.
And given the precarious state of the current team — with both Griffin and
point guard Chris Paul almost certain to become free agents after the playoffs
and guard J.J. Redick an unrestricted free agent — Griffin’s absence and impact
on the Clippers’ window of contention couldn’t have come at a worse time.
Few around the league expect Paul to leave the Clippers. Many more expect Redick
to walk in search of a big payday and a team closer to his family. Griffin is
the unknown.
On the one hand, he fits hand-in-glove with the Southern California lifestyle —
he’s done work with Will Ferrell’s FunnyOrDie.com comedy web site, along with
numerous other comedy projects. He has all manner of off-court endorsements. His
kids are in L.A. And he is a superstar in the No. 2 media market in the country.
But there are several teams that will have the means to go after him. Many
suspect the Boston Celtics, who could potentially clear enough cap space to be
able to go after two max players this summer, will be first in line.
When the Miami Heat (who finished a game out of the playoffs) resolve their
contractual situation with Chris Bosh, there’s no reason they couldn’t come hard
after Griffin. They’d be offering a chance to play with a very good point guard
in Goran Dragic, an near All-Star level center in Hassan Whiteside and lots of
shooters and role players. (And, Prime 112.) The Heat could use its cap room to
re-sign most of its existing players, to be sure, but one would have to think
they could comprise the nucleus of a championship team for that to make much
sense.
There is, of course, Oklahoma City. It’s Griffin’s hometown, which also happens
to have an available spot at power forward — though the Thunder currently has
no cap space for 2017-18, with its extensions for Steven Adams and Victor
Oladipo kicking in, along with the second year of Russell Westbrook’s extension.
Those four players alone total more than $89 million.
The Thunder could conceivably acquire Griffin in a sign-and-trade deal, but it
would have to be no more than $6 million above the luxury tax “apron” under the
rules of the newly ratified Collective Bargaining Agreement after making the
trade. As he would no doubt command a max salary, getting 30 percent of next
year’s total cap as a player with between seven and nine years of experience,
it’s hard to see how OKC could pull that off.
And even though Chicago hasn’t been as aggressive in free agency as other teams
recently, with Michael Reinsdorf now handling almost all of the team’s big
decisions instead of his father — the team’s chairman, Jerry Reinsdorf — the
Bulls could be more inclined to make a big move next summer. They looked like a
teardown for sure at the trade deadline, but the team’s surprisingly strong
first-round showing against Boston may have changed the team’s calculus.
Griffin is still one of the league’s premier power forwards, capable of
dominating a game with his passing from the elbows now as much as his formerly
high-flying jaunts to the hoop. He’s averaged about five assists a game three
straight seasons and he’s never shot less than this season’s .493 from the
field.
Griffin can opt out of the final year of his deal with the Clippers by the end
of June. If he opts in for 2017-18, he’ll make $21.3 million next season. But no
one expects him to do that when he can get another max deal either from the
Clips or someone else. Los Angeles can offer him a five-year deal for almost
$180 million. If he were to sign with someone else, they could only offer him
four years, with smaller raises each season than if he re-signed with the
Clippers.
If the injury requires surgery, Griffin could still be rehabbing when he hits
free agency. Noted trainer Tim Grover, who worked with Michael Jordan, Kobe
Bryant and Dwyane Wade during his career, sent a Tweet Saturday saying the
recovery period following surgery for a plantar plate could be between four and
five months. But even if that turns out to be the case it won’t impact teams’
pursuit of Griffin.
“We don’t have money,” one team executive said Sunday, “but, no — he’ll get the
max.”
Recent history suggests that that will indeed be the case. Players coming off of
very serious injuries in recent years — guard Wesley Matthews (torn Achilles’),
and forwards Amar’e Stoudemire and Chandler Parsons (both returning from
microfracture knee surgery) — have all nonetheless gotten max deals. The New
York Knicks, after striking out on LeBron James in 2010, gave Stoudemire $100
million over five years, even though the team couldn’t get insurance on him
because of his knees.
In 2015, after DeAndre Jordan walked away from a verbal deal with the Mavericks
to stay with the Clippers, Dallas actually bumped up its offer to Matthews, and
gave him a four-year deal for $70 million. And last summer, the Memphis
Grizzlies gave Parsons $92 million over four.
There is, though, the case of Joakim Noah, who got $72 million from the Knicks
last summer. He was a shell of himself through 46 games this season before being
shut down for good in February to undergo arthroscopic knee surgery.
In the post-cap spike NBA, every new contract, especially for the game’s
superstars, with their enormous price tags, is going to be scrutinized much more
than before.
And prospective teams will have to thoroughly examine Griffin’s history of
injuries, dating back to what should have been his rookie season, 2009-10. But
Griffin missed the whole year after suffering a stress fracture of his left
kneecap late in the preseason. He got through his next three seasons quite
healthy, missing a total of just four games during that stretch, and only had
one significant injury during the 2014-15 season — surgery for a staph
infection in his elbow that cost him 15 games and kept him out of the All-Star
Game.
But the last two seasons have been nightmares. Griffin missed 45 games in
2015-16, starting with a torn left quad, but which also included a broken hand
suffered during a fight with his friend and a Clippers’ equipment manager,
Matias Testi. The Clippers suspended Griffin for four games without pay upon his
return later in the season. His hand healed, but Griffin’s playoffs last season
were terminated after just four first-round games against Portland, when he
aggravated the quad injury and missed the rest of the series.
The Clippers revamped their entire basketball operations department during the
offseason, bringing in a small army of development specialists who sought to
maximize their players’ performance with regularly mandated rest during the
regular season at the first hint of overload or fatigue. And they dictated days
off for Griffin during the regular season, even when he chafed at the
directives.
Griffin still missed 18 regular-season games this season after undergoing right
knee surgery just before last Christmas, but he and the Clippers had gotten to
the end of the regular season healthy, and were playing some of their best ball
of the season entering the playoffs. And, now, this, on a seemingly innocuous
first-half drive in Game 3 Friday.
All the injuries “would give me pause,” another team exec texted Sunday. “But I
think someone will give (the max) to him.”
Another long-time team executive used almost the exact same phrase. “It will
make people pause,” the executive texted Sunday. “Especially after Noah in New
York.”
Several high-profile athletes have suffered plantar plate injuries in recent
years.
Albert Pujols of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim was reduced to designated
hitter duties down the stretch of the 2015 season after tearing the plantar
plate in his right big toe, and underwent surgery in November of that year. He
had to wear a boot on his foot for seven weeks after the surgery. But Pujols was
able to return and play in 152 games the following season for the Angels,
hitting 31 homers and driving in 119 runs.
NFL players Pierre Garcon, Sean Lee and DeMarco Murray have also suffered
plantar plate injuries in recent years that dramatically slowed or stopped their
production. Garcon missed four games for the Washington Redskins after suffering
the injury on opening day of the 2012 season, though he returned later in the
season, and played in 62 of Washington’s 64 games over the last four seasons.
“For me, it was my second toe,” Garcon, who signed a deal in March with the San
Francisco 49ers, said by telephone Sunday evening. “Planting, pushing off was
the hard part. The sprinting. That’s what we need to play football, to sprint
off your toes, the balls of your feet … when you’re playing and you have that
tear, it feels like a needle’s going through there.”
Garcon modified his shoes when he came back, putting more padding in both cleats
to make them softer. He tried wider shoes so they weren’t as tight on his feet.
He taped his toes differently and got ice and foot massages.
“Just staying on top of it,” he said. “You can definitely bounce back from it.
But you have to play with your shoes, you have to do a lot of rehab … the next
year, I kind of felt more comfortable, because I kept doing (the same) rehab,
the same treatment and stuff that kept me out for a while. I just stayed on top
of it. For him, I’d say next season he’d be back feeling normal. But everybody’s
different. He probably weighs a lot more, so there’s a lot more pain on his
feet.”
For the short term, the Clippers will try to survive with Marreese Speights at
power forward, and lean on Paul even more for his scoring and passing. They
could still beat Utah without Griffin. Even with Griffin, though, the Clips have
lost 10 straight times to Golden State, almost certainly their next opponent in
the conference semifinals if they get past the Jazz.
And if you haven’t beaten Golden State in two years, are you going to throw
something in the neighborhood of $400 million at Paul and Griffin to keep the
nucleus of the current team together — one that doesn’t seem good enough to
beat the west’s standard bearer?
Mr. Ballmer?
Mr. Ballmer?
Longtime NBA reporter, columnist and Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Famer
David Aldridge is an analyst for TNT. You can e-mail him here, find his archive
here and follow him on Twitter.
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clubs or Turner Broadcasting.
