Chris Copeland started the season opener for the Bucks last season. That same game, Miles Plumlee played three minutes, the fewest of anyone to get minutes. By February, Copeland was waived while Plumlee was starting.
(Yes, Giannis was suspended for game one, pushing Copeland to the first five. Nevertheless.)
Media Day this year brought word that Jason Kidd may start Plumlee as well as Rashad Vaughn to start the regular season. But how long-lasting, predictive are opening night starting fives?
Maybe don’t get too attached to the starting five on October 26: In a full quarter of seasons this century, the opening night starting lineup never started again after that first night. On average, opening night starters only start roughly 10 games per season, and that number is boosted by the one outlier, in 2005-06, when the Bucks ran with a whole bunch of T.J. Ford/Michael Redd/Bobby Simmons/Jamaal Magliore/Andrew Bogut.
Some of this driven by injury, some by experimentation. Regardless, every year since 2000, the Bucks have tried at least 10 different starting lineup combinations. On average, more than 18 per season.
Even the most commonly-used starting lineup, the one the team settles on, rarely starts even a third of the games. It doesn’t have to be this way. The 2015-16 Warriors only used 12 different starting lineups. The 1995-96 Bulls only used nine different starting lineups. Greatness breeds stability and stability breeds greatness. You don’t force it, though. You tinker and land a superstar or two in the lottery, and shake things up, and like that, it will be apparent when you land on it.
