To the casual observer, the first half of the 2015-16 NBA season may look suspiciously similar to the way last season finished. Golden State Warriors? Still the best. Cleveland Cavaliers? When healthy, atop the East. San Antonio Spurs? Ho-hum, still hanging around the top of the standings.
If only it could all be so simple. Delve a little deeper, and it’s clear that there have been some significant changes during first half of the 2015-16 NBA season, both individually (could it be that last season’s Kia MVP winner actually got better this season?) and systemic (3-pointers are being lofted at an historic rate).
Let’s take a closer look at some of the top storylines from the first half of the 2015-16 season…
(Editor’s note: All stats referenced are through Jan. 16, 2016.)
Those unstoppable Warriors
After beating the Cavaliers in six games to win the 2015 NBA Finals, the Warriors entered this season expected by many to again be among the NBA’s title contenders. (According to NBA.com’s GM Survey, the Warriors were 17.9 percent favorites to repeat.) What nobody predicted, however, is that the Warriors might truly be great, among the very best teams of all-time. The Warriors began the 2015-16 campaign by reeling off 24 consecutive wins, on their way to taking 37 of their first 40 games. Golden State’s 37-3 start ties the Warriors with three other teams (1966-67 Philadelphia 76ers, ’71-72 Los Angeles Lakers, and ’95-96 Chicago Bulls) for best record in NBA history through the first 40 games.
Even more remarkable is that Golden State has done it without their coach, Steve Kerr, who has attended some practices but thus far missed every game while recovering from back surgery. While the Warriors under interim coach Luke Walton have shown incredible poise and received plenty of notable performances from a vast cast of supporting players, no player has been more integral to their success than Stephen Curry.
After averaging 23.8 points in 2014-15 en route to winning the Kia MVP Award, Curry has been even more dynamic this season. Through his first 38 games, Curry averaged a career-high 29.7 points, shooting a career-high 51 percent (while sinking an incredible 45-percent of the 10 3-pointers a game that he attempts). Also important has been forward Draymond Green, who signed a contract extension in the offseason and has justified the big money deal with averages of 15.0 points, 9.7 rebounds, 7.3 assists. He also has eight triple-doubles in Golden State’s first 40 games, the most in the NBA.
Pace-and-space rolls along
The prevailing offensive philosophy around the NBA these days is to find a center who can run the floor, get a power forward with 3-point range (also known as a “stretch 4”), then mix-and-match around the perimeter with shooting specialists and athletic players. This way you can take advantage of being able to score easy baskets in transition, as well as search for open 3-point opportunities in the halfcourt offense.
The Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs may have been on the vanguard of this philosophy over the last decade, but in recent seasons it has spread through the NBA like wildfire. For the first half of the season, 25 of the NBA’s 30 teams were playing at a faster pace than they were a season ago. Through games played on Thursday, Jan. 14, the entire NBA had combined for an average Pace Factor of 97.9 possessions per 48 minutes, according to NBA.com/Stats. If that number holds through the end of the season, it would be the highest league-wide Pace Factor for a season since 1992-93.
Three (-pointers) for all
A decade ago, one NBA team (the Mike D’Antoni-coached Phoenix Suns) attempted over 2,000 3-pointers (2,097) in a season. So far this season, 17 different teams are on track to top that mark. To take full advantage of the space being created by playing with pace, NBA teams are shooting more 3-pointers than ever before.
In 1980-81, NBA teams averaged just two 3-pointers per game. This season, through Thursday, Jan. 14, 28.2 percent of all shots being taken are from 3-point range, the highest percentage in NBA history. That’s a full percentage point higher than last season, when 26.8 percentage of shots were from behind the arc.
The Incredible Shrinking NBA
Want to get minutes as a center in the NBA? Better work on that long-range jumper. With speed being emphasized and so many outside shots being attempted, big men in today’s NBA better be able to get up and down the floor. This doesn’t mean conventional centers don’t exist in the NBA today — from Rudy Gobert to Andrew Bogut to Timofey Mozgov to Brook Lopez, there are still plenty of effective bigs.
But emphasizing rapidity generally isn’t conducive to having a traditional rim protector on the court, someone who not only may not be able to keep up, but also likely doesn’t have the offensive range and ability to spread the floor in the same way as a stretch 4. Some players, however, have been able to adapt. For example, as coach Mike Budenholzer continues to probe the limits of pace and space with the Hawks, Atlanta’s All-Star center Al Horford is averaging three 3-pointers per game this season, far and beyond his career high of 0.5 per game (which he set last season).
Farewell, Kobe
Heading into his 20th NBA season, Kobe Bryant said several times last fall that this would probably be his final NBA campaign. At the same time, he refused to definitively declare that this was it. But after a brutal start, with the Lakers at 2-13 and Bryant averaging 15.7 points per game on 16.7 shots per game, Bryant announced via a poem that this would be his final season.
“You gave a six-year-old boy his Laker dream,” wrote Bryant. “And I’ll always love you for it. But I can’t love you obsessively for much longer. This season is all I have left to give. My heart can take the pounding. My mind can handle the grind. But my body knows it’s time to say goodbye.”
Since then, the Lakers’ season has basically become a Kobe farewell tour. Despite Bryant requesting that opposing teams treat his final appearances in their city as just another game, fans have flocked to see him for the final time, as he’s drawn ovations from appreciative fans in opposing arenas from Boston to Oakland. As of the most recent All-Star voting update, Bryant was the NBA’s leading vote-getter and seemingly a lock to start in what would be his 15th All-Star appearance.
It’s like they never left
Several NBA stars squarely in their prime saw their 2014-15 seasons truncated due to injury, which also temporarily derailed their franchises. Former Kia MVP Kevin Durant, as well as All-Star forwards Paul George and Carmelo Anthony, missed significant portions of the ’14-15 campaign. Perhaps not surprisingly, none of their teams qualified for the ’14-15 NBA Playoffs. This season, they’ve each looked terrific.
Durant is averaging 26.7 ppg while shooting a career-best 52-percent from the field. George is scoring 24.1 points per game while playing the same high-level defense he showcased before breaking his leg in the summer of 2014. And Anthony is averaging 21.6 ppg to go along with a career-high 3.8 apg for the resurgent Knicks.
Perhaps most importantly, all three have their teams on track to return to the postseason.
A Draft class to remember
Over the years we’ve seen NBA teams use the NBA Draft for different purposes, from selecting immediate-impact players to gambling on prospects they hope may eventually develop into NBA players. But by and large, the members of the 2015 NBA Draft class have been able to contribute from the jump. And while the first 13 players who were drafted have all logged minutes this season, several rookies have shined bright.
Karl-Anthony Towns, the No. 1 overall pick from 2015, has started every game for the Minnesota Timberwolves and averaged a robust 15.7 points to go with 9.4 rebounds a game. Despite some early off-the-court issues, Jahlil Okafor has been the Philadelphia 76ers’ leading scorer (17.2 ppg).
And arguably the most impactful rookie this season has been the New York Knicks’ Kristaps Porzingis. The 7-foot-3, 20-year-old Latvian has contributed 13.9 ponts and 8.0 rebounds, as well as a highlight reel jammed with put-back dunks and blocks for the thriving and reviving Knicks.
Offseason upgrades that worked …
Perhaps no team had a more fruitful summer than the San Antonio Spurs, who signed marquee free agent LaMarcus Aldridge. While Aldridge’s transition to back home to Texas hasn’t been completely seamless, the Spurs basically picked up where they left off, compiling a 35-6 record to start the season, including a perfect 20-0 record at home.
The Los Angeles Clippers were particularly active in the offseason, refashioning their rotation by adding Josh Smith, Lance Stephenson, Paul Pierce and Wesley Johnson, while also ultimately winning a contentious derby to retain DeAndre Jordan. Through their first 39 games the Clippers were 26-13, an identical start to last season.
When the Dallas Mavericks lost Jordan at the last minute, they replaced him with Zaza Pachulia, who had become a surplus center for the Milwaukee Bucks. Thus far, Pachulia has been terrific for the Mavericks (10.8 points, 10.8 rebounds), and with the remarkably durable Dirk Nowitzki averaging 17.7 points at 37 years old, the Mavs are squarely in the Western Conference playoff mix.
The Chicago Bulls were mostly active off the court last summer, parting ways with coach Tom Thibodeau and replacing him with Fred Hoiberg. While Chicago’s offseason moves were looked at as a way to invigorate their offense while perhaps sacrificing Thibs’ defensive focus, the Bulls have actually slipped a bit offensively and improved a bit defensively, at least according to their ratings at this point in the season. At 23-15 through their first 38 games, the Bulls are on track to finish with a record similar to last season’s 50-32 campaign.
… and those that didn’t
For a few franchises, the 2015-16 season got off to a start they’d rather forget.
The New Orleans Pelicans capped off their ’14-15 season with a surprise playoff appearance, and seemed to signal they were ready to accelerate their rebuilding program by firing coach Monty Williams and bringing in Golden State assistant Alvin Gentry. After an injury-riddled first few months, the Pelicans opened the season a disappointing 12-26.
The Brooklyn Nets were a playoff team a season ago, but their attempt to play with more tempo this season was altered in early January when point guard Jarrett Jack went down with a season-ending ACL injury. Soon after, coach Lionel Hollins was let go and general manager Billy King was reassigned. Now, at 11-28, the Nets have to confront an uncertain future.
The Phoenix Suns have also stumbled out of the gate, as point guard Eric Bledsoe went down with a season-ending meniscus tear and coach Jeff Hornacek shuffled his coaching staff, leaving the 13-27 Suns grasping for answers.
Also, considering they won playoff series last season, it’s worth keeping an eye on both the Washington Wizards (19-19) and the Houston Rockets (21-20), two teams that haven’t quite found their grooves yet.
Lang Whitaker has covered the NBA since 1998. You can e-mail him here or follow him on Twitter.
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