The very least the Hall of Fame could do as part of its stated push for transparency is release the final election tally, even as officials remain steadfast they will not identify the 24 voters who decide enshrinement out of the North American committee. That policy change would be welcome no matter what, but is especially relevant this year.
Shaquille O’Neal could be — should be — a unanimous choice. Whether that happens would be an interesting side note to the big picture of the election as another chance to compare the Big Finalist to inductees through the decades, just as baseball sparked conversation by announcing Ken Griffey Jr. set the record with the largest percentage of votes.
That is on top of the new tracking of candidates with strong NBA and ABA ties, now that the Hall changed the calendar to announce every inductee at once, at the Final Four, as opposed to the previous timeline of unveiling winners from the direct-elect categories (at All-Star weekend) and the survivors from the North American and Women’s committee (on championship Monday) separately. This time, the entire Class of 2016 will be revealed April 4 in Houston.
Also unlike past years, the NBA/ABA names are still everywhere, dozens scattered about the Early African-American Pioneers, International, Contributor and Veterans groups. That makes the task of rating the chances of the Hall finalists unwieldy, even if the process remains the same of North American and Women’s requiring two rounds of voting for induction and the four other groups a single ballot.
There will be no comparing the chances of the finalists from North American with, say, Chuck Cooper from the Early African-American Pioneers, Toni Kukoc from International, Donnie Walsh in Contributor and Ron Boone among Veterans. (Although for a good debate within a category, there is Johnny Kerr, Jerry Krause and Jerry Reinsdorf in a Bulls showdown inside the Contributor classification.)
This is the year with only four finalists with NBA ties in North American, with the remaining six spots going to college coaches Lefty Driesell, Tom Izzo, John McClendon, Bo Ryan and Eddie Sutton, plus high school coach Robert Hughes. The 2015 field, by comparison, had eight NBA finalists. In 2014, there were five and 2013 had nine.
Among the four:
Candidate: Darell Garretson
Chances: Fair.
Summary: If predicting the outcome for players and coaches is usually difficult enough, given the whiplash of some not making it out of the first round of voting one year to enshrinement the next, guesstimating on referees is even tougher. Garretson worked the NBA for 27 years, including 41 Finals games and five All-Star games, both indicators of ranking at the top of the profession. He was also the league’s director of officials and was a key figure in organizing and later running the first union for referees. Dick Bavetta was inducted in 2015, and now Garretson, who passed away in 2008, is a finalist in his first year on the ballot. Bavetta worked 837 more regular-season games, but Garretson worked 14 more in The Finals.
Candidate: Allen Iverson
Career stats & accolades
Chances: Excellent.
Summary: Personality matters to the secret electorate, and it especially matters among players on their first year on the ballot. Voters, some of whom have changed in the interim, proved that by eliminating Dennis Rodman on his initial try, before enshrining Rodman one year later. They also proved it by turning down outspoken Spencer Haywood for decades before he was finally enshrined in 2015. On his scoring, though, on his thirst to break the ankles of anyone foolish enough to stand between Iverson and the lane, A.I. is difficult to turn away. He led the league in scoring four times, steals three times, minutes seven times, was MVP, Rookie of the Year, an All-America at Georgetown and a nine-time All-Star.
Candidate: Kevin Johnson
Career stats & accolades
Chances: Good.
Summary: Making finalist again — while Tim Hardaway was eliminated in the first round of balloting, when Hardaway vs. KJ in a showdown of point guards from the same era seemed to be a fun Hall debate — could be taken as an especially encouraging sign by the Johnson camp. He obviously has solid, lasting support from voters, many of whom in recent years have rewarded candidates for patience. He also has four second-team All-NBA spots at a time of many historically good guards, three All-Star appearances and is sixth in career assists per game when everyone else in the top seven is either enshrined or will be.
Candidate: Shaquille O’Neal
Career stats & accolades
Chances: Lock.
Summary: The only suspense with the big finalist is whether he turns the Sept. 9 acceptance speech into open-mic night at the comedy club. Otherwise, four titles, 15 All-Star appearances, seventh on the career scoring list, Olympic gold and three Finals MVPs. That would also make a nice run of centers walking the steps of Symphony Hall: Shaq in 2016, Dikembe Mutombo in ’15, Alonzo Mourning in ’14. And, the new class could also include Yao Ming, nominated through the International committee.
Scott Howard-Cooper has covered the NBA since 1988. You can e-mail him here and follow him on Twitter.
The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NBA, its clubs or Turner Broadcasting.
