Thoughts on Aron Baynes and Steve Blake, the chances of the Pistons getting some national TV attention, how best to use Marcus Morris and more fill up this week’s edition of Pistons Mailbag.
Steven (@steven_welling): What are your initial thoughts on Aron Baynes so far? My worry is any game Drummond is in foul trouble, we will struggle mightily.
Langlois: It’s a pretty nice problem to have – a player so good that when he has to come out of the game, there’s a significant dropoff to his replacement. New Orleans is going to struggle without Anthony Davis, too. Championship-caliber teams with multiple All-Stars – think Cleveland with LeBron James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving – can get by for long stretches of a game, or even a series of games, when a superstar goes down. The Pistons need Drummond, of course. I haven’t seen anything from Baynes to cause any undue anxiety, though. Because Drummond has been playing so well and because the Pistons have been playing very good teams and very close games, for the most part, they’ve needed Drummond for 35-plus minutes. Baynes has been solid. He converts around the basket, he sets solid screens and he’s a good passer. We haven’t seen much of it yet, but he’s also been a good mid-range jump shooter. He’s also coming off of off-season ankle surgery that limited his participation through the preseason, so he’s probably not at his peak just yet. I don’t think Stan Van Gundy is sweating his backup big man situation.
Nicholas (Hudsonville, Mich.): If the Pistons continue this level of play, is it possible that they could be on national TV or are those games locked in already?
Langlois: ESPN and ABC can and do shuffle their lineups, Nicholas. The TNT Thursday night doubleheaders are a different thing. They won’t move the Pistons – or any other teams, for that matter – to Thursday from another night for the purpose of putting them on the national TNT telecasts. But I would expect the Pistons to start showing up on ESPN’s telecasts if they continue on anything approaching their early success.
Tara (South Lyon, Mich.): I know advanced stats love 3-pointers. But don’t they love layups even more? Is there anyone in the league better at getting to the hoop and finishing at the rim than Reggie Jackson right now? A lot of media (read: ESPN) talk about how 3-point shooting is the wave of the future. But isn’t that just because dominant centers and hyper efficient slashers are hard to come by?
Langlois: Going into the week, Tara, Reggie Jackson was averaging 7.2 shots per game within 5 feet of the basket. Only one other point guard was averaging more than that – Boston’s Isaiah Thomas at 7.8. Jackson was shooting 53.5 percent on those attempts. A 3-point shooter hitting 35.7 percent – and that’s right about at the league average – delivers the same efficiency as a player shooting 53.5 percent on 2-point attempts. Of course, that doesn’t take into account the number of times Jackson might be fouled on his drives or the points that result from ensuing free throws. And Jackson is shooting .393 percent from the 3-point line, too. The good news there: He’s been scoring in a variety of ways and if he can continue to shoot well from the 3-point line, it’s going to result in more driving opportunities for him and better passing angles to cutters – Andre Drummond, in particular – as defenses overextend themselves.
Jason (Warner Robbins, Ga.): A center has only won the MVP seven times since 1980. Andre Drummond could have signed a max contract this off-season but delayed negotiations until next July in the best interests of the franchise. If he were to win MVP this year – hard to do given the presence of Curry, LeBron and Durant – he would qualify for the Derrick Rose rule which would afford him 30 percent of the cap instead of 25 percent. If he would have signed the max extension this off-season, which would not have taken effect until July 2016, would he have lost money provided he won the MVP? Would the contract have been hard set at 25 percent or does it vaguely say “max extension?”
Langlois: The way you become eligible for the so-called “super max” contract is to be named MVP; or to be named All-NBA first, second or third team at least twice; or to be voted an All-Star game starter at least twice. Since Drummond cannot possibly qualify via the last two means, he’d have to win MVP this season. That wouldn’t guarantee him the 30 percent ceiling, though. It’s negotiable at any level between 25 and 30 percent. Had Drummond signed an extension this fall, it would have specified the terms. For instance, it would have spelled out what percentage of the cap he would receive for winning the MVP award – a rate not less than 25 percent nor more than 30 percent, but anywhere in between depending on the terms of their agreement.
Daniel (Ann Arbor, Mich.): Moving Andre Iguodala to the bench last year was key to Golden State’s success. Could moving Marcus Morris to the second unit for Stanley Johnson help develop Johnson’s game and provide the bench a valuable scoring threat?
Langlois: Developing Johnson’s game wouldn’t be the motivation for such a move, Daniel. Bettering their chances to win games is the overwhelming factor when considering such moves. Stan Van Gundy kind of split the difference between standing pat and your suggestion, electing to alter the rotation to make Morris the featured scorer for the second unit by getting him out of games midway through the first quarter and getting him back as he brings in Steve Blake and Aron Baynes for Reggie Jackson and Andre Drummond. It’s a little too early to judge the results conclusively, but in their big road wins at Phoenix and Portland in the first two games under that system the Pistons won twice.
Frank (Hastings, Mich.): With the troubles the Pistons second unit is having with scoring, wouldn’t it make sense to move Marcus Morris and his scoring to the second unit and insert Stanley Johnson into the starting lineup. It’s a no-brainer for me.
Langlois: See above, Frank. And one other thing. Morris is averaging 39 minutes a game. If you bring him off the bench, it’s really hard to get to those minutes. He’d have to play the last 19-plus minutes straight of each half. Van Gundy is leaning on him pretty hard right now because he brings scoring in a way the Pistons can’t really get from anyone else – creating off the dribble against forwards, scoring from the mid-post – and also values his toughness and defense. The best way to maximize Morris’ value to the Pistons is to start him, give him five or six minutes of rest in the middle of each half, then get him back out there. Stanley Johnson’s role is very likely to increase as the season goes along and he grows more comfortable. He’s too good defensively and too much of a competitor for improvement not to result.
Randal (Mount Pleasant, Mich.): How long did it take Stan Van Gundy to take Orlando to the Finals when he got there? And can we expect the same relative time for him to turn the Pistons into a solid contender?
Langlois: Orlando went to the NBA Finals in Van Gundy’s second season with the Magic, Randal. I don’t think you can ever expect a season that ends in the Finals unless it’s a unique situation – maybe like LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh joining forces in their prime. Or LeBron James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving joining forces in their prime. If teams like those don’t start every season with the expectation of getting to the Finals, there is at least profound disappointment if they don’t get there. But getting there is really, really hard and even teams loaded up on superstars need good health and a little good fortune to make it that far. If the Pistons stay relatively healthy, my expectation coming into the season was that they would stay in the thick of the playoff race all the way. They’re off to a very promising start. If they get to the playoffs and turn it into a positive experience – not necessarily advancing a round or two, even, but showing great competitiveness – then they’ll go into next off-season with that plus more than $20 million in cap space to add whatever touches to the roster Van Gundy and general manager Jeff Bower see as necessary to complete it. I would expect, if you’ll pardon the redundancy, that expectations will rise accordingly as that happens.
Clark (Santa Cruz, Calif.): Lots of hypotheticals, but if Stan Van Gundy decides that Ilyasova is replaceable with our cap space this summer, what teams might be interested in his contract? It seems it could be a really useful trade chip to a team trying to save money. Cleveland comes to mind, but they don’t have much we’d be interested in. Is there any advantage to them in dealing for Ilyasova instead of, for instance, dumping their contracts on the 76ers?
Langlois: Ilyasova’s team option for the 2016-17 season would be similar to Caron Butler’s deal from last season – the tool the Pistons used to get Ilyasova from Milwaukee. The Pistons used the deal to fill a position of need at power forward and found a trade partner that only wanted the cap space that could be realized by taking on non-guaranteed contracts in return. So on your hypothetical that Van Gundy wants to use “cap space” to upgrade at power forward, then it would likely be a similar situation – finding a team that wants to divest itself of a contract to create cap space while the Pistons, in effect, use the cap space they could create simply by declining their option on Ilyasova by allocating it to the player obtained in trade. As to what teams would be interested, even most teams wouldn’t have any idea at this point. So much depends on what happens over the course of the season. Then teams sit down and assess their needs – and their options.
Jason (@JasonBouty): Any way we can trade Blake to Miami for Beno Udrih? I think he would be an upgrade.
Langlois: Pretty rare for teams to swap players, one for one, who play the same position and fill the same roles for their teams. I suppose it’s possible each team would like the other’s backup point guard better for their particular situation, be it playing style or compatibility or something else. But, like I said, rare. Blake has certainly had the better career than Udrih and Stan Van Gundy’s admiration for Blake runs deep. That doesn’t mean he’ll give Blake a blank slate and ignore the reality of his play. But he’s also not ready to write him off after a few weeks. Blake has had some nice moments – he was a big part of the win at Phoenix to start this six-game road trip, for one – mixed in with a few spotty outings. But Van Gundy is going to weigh his 12 previous seasons over a few uneven weeks on the heels of a three-week absence for a concussion, a first-time injury for Blake. Now, Miami’s motivation for the trade that sent Mario Chalmers to Memphis for Udrih was lessening its luxury tax bill, so it wouldn’t be surprising to find the Heat willing to peddle Udrih, I suppose.
Isaac (Irvine, Calif.): I know it’s really early to start talking about summer 2016, but recently Jared Greenberg suggested on NBA Radio that maybe because Stan Van Gundy let go of Monroe and Smith for nothing, the same could happen with Drummond. Can you put in perspective how silly that speculation is and please shed light on the flexibility it gives the Pistons to have Drummond wait before signing his max deal? It is really confusing how much cap space they will have available. I am hearing numbers between $11 million and $20 million.
Langlois: Three different players, three unrelated situations, Isaac. The Pistons were the ones to sever the relationship with Smith. Monroe was the one who chose to leave the Pistons. Is there a chance Drummond could leave the Pistons? He’d have to sign a one-year qualifying offer next off-season and make $4.4 million for 2016-17 to become an unrestricted free agent. That, of course, was the path Monroe chose. Pistons owner Tom Gores is on the record as saying Drummond is a “max player.” The ballpark figure for what a maximum contract will be for a player of Drummond’s service time that starts with the 2016-17 season, over five years, is $120 million. He’d have to feel very strongly – like, I can’t even imagine how strongly he’d have to feel – to leave more than $115 million on the table (and about $16 million next season alone) in order to sign the same contract one year later with some other franchise. Drummond, by all appearances, is to be taken at his word when he talks about wanting to stay in Detroit and team with players like Reggie Jackson, Stanley Johnson, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Marcus Morris to build a championship-caliber team here. Stan Van Gundy and Gores have been clear and consistent about their regard for Drummond as the franchise cornerstone. It’s ridiculous to link his situation with that of Smith, for sure, and the parallels to Monroe start breaking down once you penetrate the surface even an inch. (For one example: Monroe came to believe, with ample evidence to support him, that center was his best position and it would be difficult for he and Drummond to thrive – and, thus, the team – playing alongside each other.) There are too many moving parts to say for certain how much cap space the Pistons will have next season – $20 million is a pretty fair estimate, with the ability to create more fairly easily – but Drummond’s decision to delay signing his extension until next July will give them $12.7 more than they would have had otherwise, Van Gundy said. That’s the difference between Drummond’s cap hold for 2016-17 ($8.2 million) and the projected first-year salary for a max player next season of nearly $21 million. The cap hold will be what’s on the books next July when the moratorium period lifts; the $21 million figure is what would have been on the books had they signed an extension by the Nov. 2 deadline. Once Drummond and the Pistons agree to a new contract before training camp next season, the first-year salary will replace the cap hold. But, presumably, the Pistons will have used up their $20 million-plus in cap space at that point and then gone over the cap, using Drummond’s Bird rights, to sign him.
