NBA.com’s John Schuhmann gets you ready for the 2016-17 season with a key stat for each team in the league and shows you why it matters. Today, we look at the Toronto Raptors, who had comebackability.
THE STAT
The Raptors won 15 games after trailing by at least 10 points, more than any other team in the league last season.
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Most wins after trailing by 10+, 2015-16
Team
GP
W
L
PCT
Toronto
37
15
22
0.405
Dallas
48
14
34
0.292
Cleveland
34
13
21
0.382
Atlanta
41
13
28
0.317
Houston
45
13
32
0.289
Denver
54
13
41
0.241
THE CONTEXT
The Raptors’ starting lineups (injuries to DeMarre Carroll and Jonas Valanciunas forced them to go through a few different iterations) weren’t very good, especially early in the season. They were the league’s fifth worst team in the first six minutes of the first quarter, getting outscored by 8.3 points per 100 possessions. They were particularly bad defensively at the start of games.
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Lowest NetRtg in first 6 minutes of 1st quarter, 2015-16
Team
OffRtg
Rank
DefRtg
Rank
NetRtg
L.A. Lakers
88.1
30
113.1
30
-25.0
Philadelphia
92.3
28
107.3
24
-14.9
New Orleans
98.4
25
108.0
27
-9.6
Phoenix
91.1
29
99.7
10
-8.6
Toronto
101.7
19
110.0
29
-8.3
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions
The Raptors were at their best with reserves on the floor. Among regular rotation players, their best on-court NetRtg marks belonged to Patrick Patterson (plus-9.3) and Cory Joseph (plus-6.9). Players off the bench had an aggregate NetRtg of plus-7.0, a mark which trailed only that of San Antonio.
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RAPTORS 2015-16 FOUR FACTORS
eFG%
Rank
OREB%
Rank
TO%
Rank
FTA Rate
Rank
Own
50.4%
12
24.6%
12
13.6%
6
0.328
3
Opponents
49.8%
14
22.3%
8
14.0%
19
0.269
11
eFG% = (FGM + (0.5 * 3PM)) / FGA
OREB% = % of available offensive rebounds obtained
TO% = Turnovers per 100 possessions
FTA Rate = FTA / FGA
It helped that coach Dwane Casey staggered the minutes of DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, so that one or the other was almost always on the floor with the reserves. Lowry typically sat at the end of the first quarter, while DeRozan sat at the start of the second.
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Joseph, Ross, Patterson & Biyombo w/ Lowry or DeRozan
On floor
MIN
OffRtg
DefRtg
NetRtg
+/-
Lowry
297
111.1
94.7
+16.4
+102
DeRozan
218
104.7
91.0
+13.7
+59
TOTAL
514
108.3
93.1
+15.2
+161
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions
The Raptors outscored their opponents by 15.2 points per 100 possessions in 514 minutes with Joseph, Terrence Ross, Patterson and Bismack Biyombo on the floor with either DeRozan or Lowry. Both configurations ranked among the best seven lineups that played at least 200 minutes together.
The Raptors were the league’s third best team over the last six minutes of the first quarter and the first six minutes of the second, outscoring their opponents by 9.5 points per 100 possessions, with top five marks on both offense and defense. Only San Antonio (plus-15.8) and Golden State (plus-14.0) were better in those 12 minutes.
In those 15 games the Raptors won after trailing by at least 10 points, their best plus-minus marks belonged to Joseph (plus-130), Patterson (plus-127), Lowry (plus-123) and Ross (plus-75).
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RAPTORS 2015-16 SHOOTING
Area
FGM
FGA
FG%
Rank
%FGA
Rank
Restricted area
1,278
2,147
59.5%
18
32.2%
16
Other paint
449
1,094
41.0%
10
16.4%
7
Mid-range
571
1,513
37.7%
26
22.7%
21
Corner 3
235
558
40.0%
7
8.8%
4
Above-break 3
472
1,318
35.8%
6
19.8%
17
%FGA = Percentage of total FGA
With Luis Scola now in Brooklyn, early indications are that new addition Jared Sullinger will start at the four. That may be Casey trying to keep the Joseph-Patterson bench magic alive. Either way, Biyombo will be missed.
If Carroll is healthy, the Raptors have additional depth on the wings and the ability to play small. But over the course of 82 games, they might need contributions from one or both of their rookie big men — Jakob Poeltl and Pascal Siakam — if they’re going to maintain their ability to come back from double-digit deficits.
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RAPTORS PACE & EFFICIENCY, LAST 5 SEASONS
Season
W
L
PCT
Pace
Rank
OffRtg
Rank
DefRtg
Rank
NetRtg
Rank
2015-16
56
26
0.683
95.3
29
107.0
5
102.7
11
+4.3
6
2014-15
49
33
0.598
95.4
20
108.1
3
104.8
23
+3.2
10
2013-14
48
34
0.585
94.4
23
105.8
9
102.4
9
+3.5
9
2012-13
34
48
0.415
92.9
24
102.9
14
104.7
22
-1.7
19
2011-12
23
43
0.348
91.6
28
98.5
25
101.5
12
-3.0
23
Pace = Possessions per 48 minutes
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions
10 MORE RAPTORS NOTES
According to SportVU, the Raptors ranked seventh with 3.23 passes per possession, up from 2.96 (21st) in 2014-15. That was the second biggest increase in the league (behind the Denver Nuggets), but they saw a decrease in the percentage of their field goals that were assisted. They recorded assists on only 51.1 percent of their baskets, the lowest rate in the league, down from 54.7 percent (28th) in ’14-15.
Toronto had the league’s biggest increase in DREB% (plus-4.4%) from the previous season, rising from 25th to eighth in the league.
According to SportVU, the Raptors took only 41 percent of their shots in the first 12 seconds of the shot clock, the second lowest rate in the league, ahead of only Utah (35 percent).
DeRozan led the league with 8.7 points per game on drives, up from 4.9 last season. He was also one of five players who attempted more than 500 shots from mid-range.
When coming off a ball screen, DeRozan passed the ball to the screener only 13.7 percent of the time, the lowest mark among 93 players that came off at least 500 ball screens, according to SportVU. Among that group, he was the fourth most likely to drive, the fourth most likely to isolate, and the second most likely to draw a foul.
Joseph averaged 5.7 dribbles per touch, the fourth highest mark among 230 players with at least 1,000 touches, according to SportVU. Lowry (4.0) and DeRozan (3.2) ranked 50th and 69th, respectively.
In the playoffs, the Raptors were outscored by 96 points in just 209 minutes (22.1 per 48) with Lowry on the bench.
The Raptors scored less than a point per possession in only 20 (24 percent) of their 82 regular season games, but in 11 (55 percent) of their 20 playoff games.
Valanciunas led the playoffs in rebounding percentage, grabbing 24.3 percent of available rebounds.
DeRozan had the second worst effective field goal percentage (39.9 percent) among players who took at least 100 shots in the playoffs.
NBA TV’s Raptors preview premieres at 6:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Oct. 4.
