Numbers Preview: The Finals - Los Angeles Lakers vs. Miami Heat

The first NBA Finals in a bubble is also the first NBA Finals in which neither team was in the playoffs the season before. It’s LeBron James vs. his old team and Pat Riley vs. his old team. The Los Angeles Lakers have two of the best players in the league and have continued to play some big ball. The Miami Heat have more of an ensemble cast and have played smaller in the postseason.

Both teams have had success on both ends of the floor, but offense was the story in the conference finals. The Lakers and Denver Nuggets combined to score 115.3 points per 100 possessions, while the Heat and Boston Celtics combined to score 114.1. Those were the third and fourth most efficient series of the 14 we’ve seen thus far.

To win their 17th championship, the Lakers will have to keep up with the Heat’s ball and player movement. To win their fourth, the Heat will have to protect the rim. In both cases, it’s much easier said than done.

Finals hub | Shaun Powell’s series preview

Here are some statistical notes to get you ready for The Finals, with links to let you dive in and explore more. Game 1 is Wednesday at 9 p.m. ET on ABC.

Pace = Possessions per 48 minutes
OffRtg = Points scored per 100 possessions
DefRtg = Points allowed per 100 possessions
NetRtg = Point differential per 100 possessions

Los Angeles Lakers (52-19, 12-3)

Reg. season: 52-19
Playoffs: 12-3

First round: Beat Portland in five games.
Conf. semis: Beat Houston in five games.
Conf. finals: Beat Denver in five games.
Pace: 98.7 (9)
OffRtg: 115.6 (2)
DefRtg: 107.8 (5)
NetRtg: +7.7 (1)

Lakers postseason notes – General:

Have seen the biggest jump in point differential per 100 possessions from the regular season (plus-5.6, fifth) to the playoffs (plus-7.7, first).
Have outscored their opponents by 9.6 points in the paint per game, the third biggest differential in the playoffs, though they were just +2.8 per game in the paint in the conference finals.
Have been the best first-quarter team in the postseason, outscoring their opponents by 16.1 points per 100 possessions in the opening 12 minutes.
12-0 after leading by double-digits. 0-3 after trailing by double-digits.
5-2 in games that were within five points in the last five minutes. Have combined with their opponents to scored just 64 points on 73 possessions (88 per 100) with the score within five in the last five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime.

Lakers postseason notes – Offense:

Lead the postseason with 23.3 transition points per game, according to Synergy play-type tracking. 18.5% of their possessions, the second-highest rate in the playoffs, have been in transition. According to Second Spectrum tracking, 19% of their shots, the highest rate, have come in the first six seconds of the shot clock. They rank second in effective field goal percentage both in the first six seconds of the shot clock (65.1%) and the last six seconds of the shot clock (55.5%).
Rank 15th in the playoffs in player movement (10.4 miles traveled per 24 minutes of possession) and ninth in ball movement (312 passes per 24 minutes of possession), according to Second Spectrum tracking.
Rank last in both pull-up jumpers per game (19.1) and drives per game (32.6), according to Second Spectrum tracking.
Rank second in both the percentage of their points that have been fast break points (13.8%) and the percentage of their points that have been second-chance points (11.5%).
Only 12.0% of their possessions, the third-lowest rate in the playoffs, have been pick-and-roll ball-handler possessions, according to Synergy play-type tracking.
Have averaged 13.3 post-ups per game, second-most in the playoffs, according to Second Spectrum tracking.
76% of their 3-point attempts, the second-highest rate in the playoffs, have been catch-and-shoot attempts. Rank 14th in effective field goal percentage on pull-up jumpers (40.1%).
Rank second with 4.7 corner 3s per game. 36.5% of their 3-point attempts, the highest rate in the playoffs, have come from the corners.
Lead the playoffs with 3.8 secondary assists per game.
Rank 15th with just 2.20 dribbles per touch.
Have faced 30 possessions of zone in the playoffs, according to Synergy play-type tracking. The 0.93 points per possession they’ve scored against zone ranks third among the 10 teams who have faced at least 10 possessions of zone.

Lakers postseason notes – Defense:

Lead the postseason in both deflections per game (15.0) and blocks per game (5.7).
Opponents have taken 32% of their shots, the third-highest opponent rate in the postseason, in the restricted area. Rank sixth in opponent field goal percentage in the restricted area (61.5%).
Rank ninth in opponent 3-point percentage (36.2%) and fourth in the (lowest) percentage of their opponents’ shots that have come from 3-point range (40.1%).
Have allowed just 0.86 points per possession, the postseason’s lowest rate, from roll men.
Rank second in (lowest) opponent assist-turnover ratio (1.35).
Have played 32 possessions of zone, fifth-most in the playoffs, according to Synergy play-type tracking. The 0.88 points per possession they’ve allowed in zone ranks fifth among the 10 teams who’ve played at least 10 zone possessions.

Lakers postseason notes – Lineups:

Original starting lineup – Caldwell-Pope, Green, James, Davis and McGee – has outscored its opponents by 18.4 points per 100 possessions, by far the best mark among 11 lineups that have played at least 75 postseason minutes together. Among 20 lineups that have played at least 50 minutes, it ranks first in offensive efficiency (122.4 points per 100 possessions), second in offensive rebounding percentage (36.8%) and second in opponent free throw rate (14.0 attempts per 100 shots from the field).
Lineup of Caldwell-Pope, Green, James, Davis and Howard has taken just 29.9% of its shots from 3-point range, the lowest rate among 26 lineups that have averaged at least five minutes in five games or more. The McGee lineup has shot 42.5% from 3-point range, but has the fourth-lowest 3PA/FGA rate (36.5%) among that group of 26 lineups.
Anthony Davis leads the postseason in cumulative plus-minus, with the Lakers having outscored their opponents by 135 points with him on the floor. Danny Green (+133) and LeBron James (+129) rank second and third, respectively.
The Lakers have outscored their opponents by 17.2 points per 100 possessions with Green on the floor. That’s the second-highest on-court NetRtg mark (lower than that of only Ivica Zubac) among players who have averaged at least 15 minutes per game in the playoffs. LeBron James (+12.5), Anthony Davis (+12.3) and Alex Caruso (+10.0) are the other three players with a mark of +10 or better.
The Lakers have allowed 10.1 fewer points per 100 possessions with James on the floor (103.0) than they have with him off the floor (113.1). That’s the fourth biggest on-off DefRtg differential among 73 players who’ve played at least 200 total minutes in the postseason.
Dwight Howard was a plus-42 in 101 minutes in the conference finals after registering a minus-31 in 110 minutes through the first two rounds.
Davis has played 56% of his minutes at center (with both McGee and Howard off the floor). The Lakers have outscored their opponents by 11.7 points per 100 possessions (better defensively) in 300 minutes with Davis at center and by 12.9 per 100 (better offensively) in 239 minutes with Davis at power forward (next to McGee or Howard).
42% of their minutes, the highest rate in the postseason, have come from reserves.
Have gotten just 17 total minutes, fewest in the postseason, from rookies or second-year players.

Lakers postseason notes – Individuals:

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope had an effective field goal percentage of 67.1% in the conference finals, the second-best mark among 26 players with at least 50 field goal attempts in the last round.
Caldwell-Pope has taken 63.3% of his shots from 3-point range, up from 47.1% in the regular season. That’s the fourth-biggest jump among 88 players with at least 250 field goal attempts in the regular season and at least 50 in the playoffs. Markieff Morris has seen the sixth biggest jump (from 49.8% to 65.0%).
24% of Caldwell-Pope’s points have been fast break points. That’s the second-highest rate among 105 players with at least 50 total points scored in the playoffs.
Alex Caruso has taken 93% of his shots, the sixth-highest rate among 92 players with at least 50 postseason field goal attempts, from the restricted area (39%) or 3-point range (54%). The 11-for-45 (24.4%) he’s shot from 3-point range is the fourth-worst mark among 74 players with at least 30 3-point attempts in the playoffs.
Anthony Davis is the leading scorer (28.8 points per game) among players still playing and was the only player to average more than 30 points in the conference finals. He also leads the postseason with 4.7 second chance points per game.
Davis has a free throw rate of 56.3 attempts per 100 shots from the field, the fifth-highest rate among 92 players with at least 50 field goal attempts in the playoffs. Markieff Morris (5.0 per 100) has the second-lowest rate.
Davis ranks third in the postseason with 8.0 post-ups per game, according to Second Spectrum tracking. The 1.04 points per possession he’s scored on post-ups ranks fifth among 13 players who’ve averaged at least two post-up possessions per game, according to Synergy.
Davis has taken 33% of his shots, the fourth-highest rate among 92 players with at least 50 field goal attempts, from mid-range. His rate of 2.1 mid-range attempts for every one 3-point attempt is the second-highest among 95 players with at least 30 shots from outside the paint. The 50.6% he’s shot from mid-range ranks seventh among 23 players with at least 25 mid-range attempts.
Danny Green has averaged 4.49 miles per hour, the third-fastest rate among 73 players who’ve played at least 200 total minutes in the playoffs.
Dwight Howard has grabbed 12.0% of available offensive rebounds while he’s been on the floor, the second-highest mark among 121 players who’ve averaged at least 15 minutes per game.
Howard has committed 7.2 fouls per 36 minutes, most among 123 players who’ve played at least 100 minutes in the postseason.
LeBron James leads the postseason with 11 double-doubles and four triple-doubles. He’s one of five players (and is the only one still playing) who have averaged at least 20 points and 10 rebounds per game in the playoffs. His 8.9 assists per game are the most among players whose team wasn’t swept in the first round.
James has grabbed 25.7% of available defensive rebounds while he’s been on the floor, up from 19.1% in the regular season and the fifth-highest rate (highest among players still playing) in the playoffs.
James leads the postseason (by a wide margin) with 7.5 points per game in transition, according to Synergy play-type tracking.
James has passed on 60.9% of his post-ups, the highest rate among 16 players who’ve averaged at least 2.5 post-ups per game.
Davis (78.8%) and James (75.7%) rank first and second in restricted-area field goal percentage among 36 players with at least 35 restricted-area attempts. Kyle Kuzma (71.8%) ranks sixth.
James (36.9%), Kuzma (34.0%) and Caldwell-Pope (20.0%) rank 40th, 42nd and 46th in pull-up effective field goal percentage among 46 players who’ve attempted at least 25 pull-up jumpers in the playoffs.
JaVale McGee has averaged 2.7 blocks per 36 minutes, third-most among 123 players who’ve played at least 100 postseason minutes.
Morris has an effective field goal percentage of 64.2%, the sixth-best mark among 92 players with at least 50 postseason field goal attempts (best among those still playing). He had an effective field goal percentage of just 50% in the first round, but has shot 23-for-43 (including 14-for-27 from 3-point range) over the last two series.
Rajon Rondo has recorded assists on 41.6% of his possessions, the highest rate among 121 players who’ve averaged at least 15 minutes per game. He’s averaged 7.2 assists per game, up from 5.0 per game in the regular season. That’s the biggest jump among 116 players who’ve played in at least 40 regular season games and at least five playoff games.
Rondo has an effective field goal percentage of 59.0%, up from 48.0% in the regular season. That’s the sixth biggest jump among 88 players with at least 250 field goal attempts in the regular season and at least 50 in the playoffs. Morris has seen the eighth biggest jump (from 53.9% to 64.2%).
Rondo has averaged 4.1 deflections per 36 minutes, most among 73 players who’ve played at least 200 minutes in the playoffs. He’s accounted for 34.8% of the Lakers’ steals while he’s been on the floor, the second-highest rate among that same group. Caruso ranks third with 3.8 deflections per 36.

Miami Heat

Reg. season: 44-29
Playoffs: 12-3

First round: Beat Indiana in four games.
Conf. semis: Beat Milwaukee in five games.
Conf. semis: Beat Boston in six games.
Pace: 97.4 (12)
OffRtg: 113.4 (4)
DefRtg: 108.9 (7)
NetRtg: +4.5 (3)

Heat postseason notes – General:

Have seen the second-biggest jump in point differential per 100 possessions from the regular season (plus-2.7, eighth) to the playoffs (plus-4.5, third).
Have outscored their opponents by 4.4 points per game, the postseason’s second-biggest differential, from 3-point range.
Have been the best fourth-quarter team (+17.8 points per 100 possessions) in the postseason. Were the third-worst fourth-quarter team (-5.8 per 100) in the regular season.
10-2 after leading by double-digits. 5-2 (only team with a winning record) after trailing by double-digits.
Postseason-best 9-2 in games that were within five points in the last five minutes.

Heat postseason notes – Offense:

Rank third in effective field goal percentage both in the first six seconds of the shot clock (62.8%), but only 13% of their shots (the fourth lowest rate) have come in the first six seconds. Rank third in time of possession at 21.9 minutes per game, according to Second Spectrum tracking.
Rank sixth in the playoffs in player movement (11.1 miles traveled per 24 minutes of possession) and third in ball movement (331 passes per 24 minutes of possession), according to Second Spectrum tracking.
Have recorded assists on 65.9% of their field goals, the second-highest rate in the playoffs. They’ve recorded assists on 89.4% of their 3-pointers, the highest rate. Account for three of the five playoff games in which a team has assisted on more than 77% of its buckets.
Shot 32.3% from 3-point range in the conference finals (worst mark for a team in a series it won) after shooting 38.0% through the first two rounds.
26% of their 3-point attempts, the highest rate in the playoffs, have been tightly or very tightly defended (defender within four feet), according to Second Spectrum tracking. They have the second smallest difference between how well they’ve shot on open or wide-open 3s (36.0%, 10th) and how well they’ve shot on tightly or very-tightly defended 3s (34.9%, fourth).
Rank second with 15.4 elbow touches per game and lead the playoffs with 10.0 hand-off possessions per game.
Rank last with just 2.19 dribbles per touch.
Have made 27 second-chance 3-pointers, almost twice as many as any other team (Denver and Houston rank second with 14).
Have faced 23 possessions of zone in the playoffs, according to Synergy play-type tracking. The 0.65 points per possession they’ve scored against zone ranks ninth among the 10 teams who have faced at least 10 possessions of zone.

Heat postseason notes – Defense:

One of only three teams (Boston and Houston were the others) that have allowed fewer points per 100 possessions in the playoffs (108.9, seventh) than they did in the regular season (109.3, 12th).
Have allowed 1.17 points per possession, the third-highest rate in the playoffs, in transition.
Have allowed just 9.5 points per game, second-fewest in the playoffs, from pick-and-roll ball-handlers.
Have allowed their opponents to take 27.8% of their shots in the restricted area. That’s the eighth-lowest opponent rate and a tick below the postseason average (28.0%). Also rank eighth in opponent field goal percentage in the restricted area (64.3%).
Rank second with 14.4 deflections per game.
Only team that’s allowed its opponents to take a lower percentage of their shots from 3-point range (40.4%, fifth-lowest opponent rate) than it did in the regular season (43.5%, second highest opponent rate).
Have played 177 possessions of zone (all in the conference finals), most in the playoffs, according to Synergy play-type tracking. The 0.97 points per possession they’ve played on zone ranks sixth among the 10 teams who’ve played at least 10 zone possessions.

Heat postseason notes – Lineups:

Starting lineup – Dragic, Robinson, Butler, Crowder and Adebayo – has played 193 total minutes, third most in the playoffs. It’s outscored opponents by just 1.4 points per 100 possessions, a mark that ranks eighth among the 11 lineups that have played at least 75 postseason minutes.
The Heat have three of the five lineups – Butler, Crowder and Adebayo with some combination of Dragic, Herro and Robinson – that have played at least 50 minutes and recorded assists on at least 65% of their field goals.
Lineup of Dragic, Herro, Butler, Crowder and Adebayo has averaged just 91.9 possessions per 48 minutes, the slowest pace among 20 lineups that have played at least 50 postseason minutes together.
Most-used two-man pairing (449 total minutes) is Butler and Adebayo, and they’ve outscored their opponents by 10.3 points per 100 possessions with both on the floor. But they’ve been outscored by 3.0 per 100 in 103 minutes with Adebayo on the floor without Butler and by 14.4 per 100 in 99 minutes with Butler on the floor without Adebayo.
The Heat have scored 16.9 more points per 100 possessions with Bam Adebayo on the floor (116.1) than they have with him off the floor (99.2). That’s the fourth biggest on-off OffRtg differential among 73 players who’ve played at least 200 total minutes in the postseason.
Jae Crowder is the only player in this series who’s played in all 12 of his team’s wins and has a negative plus-minus (minus-1) in the playoffs.
17% of their minutes, the second-highest rate in the playoffs (lower than only that of Oklahoma City – 18%), have come from rookies.

Heat postseason notes – Individuals:

Bam Adebayo has accounted for 35.3% of the Heat’s rebounds while he’s been on the floor. That’s the fourth-highest rate among 73 players who’ve played at least 200 total minutes in the playoffs.
Adebayo leads the postseason with 10.5 elbow touches per game. He’s passed on 51% of those, the fifth-highest rate among 12 players who’ve averaged at least three elbow touches. He’s also passed on 56.3% of his post-ups, the second-highest rate among 16 players who’ve averaged at least 2.5 post-ups per game. Jimmy Butler has the third-highest rate (54.3%).
Adebayo has taken 81% of his shots, the fifth-highest rate among 92 players with at least 50 postseason field goal attempts, in the paint. Butler has the ninth highest rate (65%).
Adebayo has shot 14-for-32 (44%) from mid-range (though he was just 4-for-13 in the conference finals), up from 22.3% in the regular season.
Adebayo has defended 36 isolation possessions, second-most in the playoffs. The 0.58 points per possession he’s allowed on isolations rank third among 29 players who’ve defended at least 20.
Butler is tied for the postseason lead with 39 total points scored in the clutch, having shot 10-for-17 (59%) from the field and 17-for-19 (89%) from the line with the score within five points in the last five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime. He also ranks second with seven clutch assists.
Butler has a free throw rate of 69.3 attempts per 100 shots from the field, the third-highest rate among 92 players with at least 50 field goal attempts in the playoffs. But it was just 47.7 per 100 in the conference finals, down from 86.5 per 100 through the first two rounds.
Butler leads the postseason with 4.1 deflections per game. He’s accounted for 33.3% of the Heat’s steals while he’s been on the floor. That’s the fourth-highest rate among 73 players who’ve played at least 200 postseason minutes.
Jae Crowder ranks fifth in the playoffs with 7.3 catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts per game. The 34.9% he’s shot on catch-and-shoot 3s ranks 29th among 40 players with at least 35 attempts.
Goran Dragic has averaged a team-high 20.9 points per game, up from 16.2 in the regular season. That’s the second-biggest jump (smaller than that of only Jamal Murray) among players who’ve played in at least 40 regular-season games and at least 10 playoff games.
Dragic ranks sixth in the playoffs with 9.1 pick-and-roll ball-handler possessions per game. The 0.87 points per possession he’s scored as pick-and-roll ball-handler rank 20th among 23 players who’ve averaged at least five ball-handler possessions per game. Butler’s 0.95 points per possession rank 13th.
Dragic is one of six players who’ve averaged at least five catch-and-shoot points (5.3) and at least five pull-up points (5.5) per game.
Butler (15.9) and Dragic (14.1) rank eighth and 10th in drives per game.
Tyler Herro has shot 25-for-42 (59.5%) from mid-range (having shot 15-for-18 in the conference finals), the best mark among 23 players with at least 25 mid-range attempts. Dragic (31.6%) and Butler (35.9%) have the two worst marks among that group.
Herro ranks second with six clutch 3-pointers in the playoffs.
Herro has averaged 4.55 miles per hour, the fastest rate among 73 players who’ve played at least 200 total minutes in the playoffs.
Herro has allowed 1.41 points per possession on isolations, the second worst mark among among 29 players who’ve defended at least 20.
Andre Iguodala has accounted for just 9.1% of the Heat’s field goal attempts while he’s been on the floor. That’s the second-lowest rate among 73 players who’ve played at least 200 total minutes in the playoffs. His 0.132 points per touch is the second-lowest mark among 73 players with at least 300 total touches in the playoffs.
Iguodala has averaged 3.22 steals + blocks per 36 minutes, fourth-most among 123 players who’ve played at least 100 minutes in the postseason. Herro’s 0.51 steals + blocks per 36 are the fifth-fewest among that group.
Kendrick Nunn has averaged just 11.5 minutes per game (and has been DNP’d six times), down from 29.3 in the regular season. That’s the biggest drop among 116 players who’ve played in at least 40 regular season games and at least five playoff games. Derrick Jones Jr. has seen the second-biggest drop (from 23.3 to 7.9 per game).
Duncan Robinson has taken 88.7% of his shots from 3-point range. That’s the highest rate among 92 players with at least 50 postseason field goal attempts. Crowder has the second-highest rate (83.6%).
Robinson has shot 11-for-21 (52.4%) on corner 3s, the second-best mark among 19 players who’ve attempted at least 20. He’s 9-for-12 from the right corner and just 2-for-9 from the left corner. (He shot better from the left corner in the regular season.)
Robinson (3.1) and Herro (2.9) rank second and third in hand-off points per game, according to Synergy play-type tracking. Herro’s points per possession on hand-offs have jumped from 0.98 in the regular season to 1.16 in the playoffs, while Robinson’s has dropped from 1.38 to 1.02.

Regular season matchup

Lakers won, 2-0
Nov. 8 @ Lakers – Lakers 95, Heat 80
Dec. 13 @ Miami – Lakers 113, Heat 110

Pace: 97.0 possessions (per team) per 48 minutes
Lakers OffRtg: 107.2 (18th vs. Miami)
Miami OffRtg: 97.9 (23rd vs. Lakers)

Matchup notes:

Rajon Rondo missed the November meeting and Kyle Kuzma missed the December game. Both games took place before the Lakers acquired Markieff Morris.
The Heat were without Derrick Jones Jr. for the November meeting and without Goran Dragic for the December game. Both took place before they acquired Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala.
The Lakers are the only team that held the Heat under a point per possession over their regular season series. The Heat’s 23.5% from 3-point range was (by far) their worst mark against any opponent. The Lakers’ win on Nov. 8 was the Heat’s worst offensive game of the season (80 points on 94 possessions).
The Lakers grabbed 34.3% of available offensive rebounds, the highest mark for any team against the Heat this season.
The Heat committed just 10.8 turnovers per 100 possessions, the lowest mark against the Lakers this season. The Lakers’ turnover rate of 19.1 per 100 possessions was their second-highest rate against any opponent. Their free throw rate of 17.6 attempts per 100 shots from the field was their third-lowest mark against any opponent.
The Heat are the only team that held the Lakers to fewer than 10 fast break points per game.
The Lakers scored 39 points on 35 zone possessions (1.11 per), 33 on 27 in the November game and six on eight in the December game. They scored 1.06 points per possession otherwise.
The Lakers shot 75.9% in the restricted area, their fourth-best mark against any opponent. 33% of their shots came in the restricted area. That was their sixth-lowest rate against any opponent.
The Heat’s regular-season starting lineup – Nunn, Robinson, Butler, Adebayo and Leonard – was outscored by 26 points in 21 minutes, scoring just 32 points on 46 offensive possessions.
Anthony Davis was a plus-38 (in 73 minutes), the second-best mark against the Heat this season. He had an effective field goal percentage of 64.9%, the sixth-best mark among 86 players with at least 25 field goal attempts against the Heat this season. He was a perfect 11-for-11 in the restricted area.
Davis played 45 (61%) of his 73 minutes at power forward, alongside either JaVale McGee or Dwight Howard. The Lakers outscored the Heat by 36.7 points per 100 possessions in those minutes and by 9.7 per 100 with Davis at center.
Jimmy Butler shot 14-for-18 (78%) in the paint and 2-for-18 (11%) from outside the paint.
Jae Crowder’s 11:08 was the 12th most time a player spent guarding LeBron James in the regular season, though all that was when Crowder was with Memphis. Butler was the Heat player who defended James most in the regular-season series and James shot 6-for-10 (including 4-for-6 from 3-point range) with that matchup.
Bam Adebayo was the Heat player who defended Davis most, and Davis shot 6-for-14 with that matchup.
Danny Green was the Laker who spent the most time (8:03) defending Butler, who shot 4-for-9 with that matchup.

Numbers Preview: The Finals — Los Angeles Lakers vs. Miami Heat

Los Angeles Lakers (52-19, 12-3)

Miami Heat

Regular season matchup

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