Note: The contents of this page have not been reviewed or endorsed by the Orlando Magic. All opinions expressed by John Denton are solely his own and do not reflect the opinions of the Orlando Magic or their Basketball Operations staff, partners or sponsors.
By John DentonApril 7, 2016
ORLANDO – During the Orlando Magic’s two best stretches of the season – when they raced to a 19-13 start and most recently when they won four of five games – they made as many or more 3-pointers than their foes 20 times and went an impressive 15-5 in those games.
Too many times, however, games have gone exactly like Wednesday’s 108-104 home loss to the Detroit Pistons, when the Magic were outscored 33-12 from the 3-point line. Already a team that is poor at getting to the free throw line, Orlando’s disparity from 3-point range has often made the margin for error too great and it’s spelled doom.
“When you look at a lot of games this year when the other team has made more threes and made more free throws, it’s been really tough to overcome,” Magic coach Scott Skiles. “You’ve got to find some other way of overcoming it. We’ve been shooting the ball well from three (during the stretch of four wins in five games), but we just didn’t (on Wednesday).
“We all know it, (the media) knows it and the players know it – that’s the way the game is going,” continued Skiles, referring to the explosion of 3-point shooting. “You’ve got to be able to make your share of threes. And nowadays, if you’re not making them, it’s just very difficult to win.”
Orlando (33-45) heads into Friday night’s game at the Amway Center against the Miami Heat ranked 16th in the NBA in 3-point percentage (35 percent), 22nd in 3-point makes per game (7.8) and 22nd in attempts per game (22.3).
This season, the Magic have made more 3-pointers than their opponents 29 times and they have compiled a solid 16-13 record in those games. Oddly, they are just 2-5 when matching their foes in 3-pointers. Of course, that means that Orlando is a disappointing 15-27 when being outshot from 3-point range.
Foes have shot 36 percent from 3-point range against the Magic, but they have hit 704 of those threes compared to Orlando’s 609 triples.
“You have to be efficient because the 3-point shot has become such of a weapon for teams,” said guard/forward Evan Fournier, Orlando’s 3-point accuracy leader. “Teams want to space the floor (with shooters) and then that gives you a better opportunity to get into the paint. The game is changing. Even if you have a dominant big – having good shooters around him just makes the game so much easier.”
The numbers bear out Fournier’s logic. The four teams in the Western and Eastern Conference Finals last season – Golden State, Houston, Cleveland and Atlanta – were four of the best 3-point shooting teams in the league. Last year’s NBA champion, Golden State, was the runaway leader in almost every major 3-point shooting category.
This season, Golden State’s pursuit of Chicago’s record-setting 73-win season has been fueled by the long-range accuracy of Stephen Curry (382 3-pointers at the start of Thursday) and Klay Thompson (266 3-pointers as of Thursday morning) and an offense that leads the NBA in 3-point accuracy (41.7 percent), makes per game (13.1) and attempts a game (31.5).
Throughout the NBA this season, 11 of top 15 teams in 3-point percentage are firmly in place to play in the playoffs, led by the Warriors and San Antonio Spurs (38.1 percent). In terms of 3-point makes, 10 of the top 15 teams in that category are playoff bound. As for attempts per game, nine of the NBA’s top 15 are heading for the postseason basketball.
“The trend is going that way where if you can’t make threes, you can’t (be successful),” said Portland coach Terry Stotts, whose team ranks third in the NBA in 3-pointer percentage and makes per game. “San Antonio kind of started that trend or at least was at the forefront of it and now they are 25th in the league in attempts and they are having a pretty good year. I think it’s all based on your personnel and what you do well.”
The challenge for the Magic – over the final four games of this season and beyond – is coming up ways to keep pace from 3-point range in this day and age of “small ball” and “four-out-one-in” offenses.
Fournier has shot better than 40 percent most of the season, but missing all five of his 3-point shots on Wednesday dropped him to 39.5 percent. Similarly, Victor Oladipo didn’t shoot it well on Wednesday (five of 13 overall and 1 of 2 from 3-point range) and is shooting 34.5 percent from 3-point range for the season. Oladipo has had great shooting months from 3-point range (48.3 percent in January and 38.8 percent in March) and poor shooting months from 3-point range (27.2 percent in November, 28.2 percent in December and 32.8 percent in February).
“You’re not going to make threes every given night in this league,” said Oladipo, a career 33.8 percent shooter from 3-point range. “I’m sure the teams that make a lot of threes don’t make them every night, but they still find a way to win. So we’ve got to get better at doing that.”
Fellow starters Elfrid Payton (34.1 percent this season) and Aaron Gordon (29.7 percent this season) have worked with shooting coach Dave Love and have hoisted thousands of extra shots to better their strokes from 3-point range. Also, two of Orlando’s best shooters – 7-footers Nikola Vucevic and Jason Smith – prefer mid-range jumps – attempts frowned upon by analytical analysts because of the points-per- possession projections.
With the Magic trailing the Pistons by three points with 2:03 to play on Wednesday night, Fournier drove into the heart of the defense and passed it back out to Gordon, who readied himself for the potential tying shot. However, the tough-luck try rattled around the rim and fell out.
“I kind of felt (a 3-point shot) coming in the flow of the game because I hadn’t had a shot in awhile. I was playing in the flow and Evan found me and I took my time,” Gordon recalled. “I made sure I shot it right and it went three-quarters of the way in and it popped out. Unfortunately, that doesn’t count.”
Skiles said that if the Magic had just shot their 35 percent season average from 3-point range on Wednesday they might have been able to upend the Pistons and keep their late-season run going. Instead, the Magic finished four of 15 from 3-point range – reminding them once again one of the areas that needs to major improvement before next season.
“We’ve got to make more threes and shoot a better percentage – at least that’s the goal,” Skiles said. “That’s just the way the game is played now. Teams are literally – in game plans – willing to concede threes to not give up twos. Not that long ago, that would have seemed to be ridiculous. But it’s just the way it is now and we’ve got to shoot them better.”
