Well, you never know.
A year ago, the first name mentioned among potential stars at small forward
before the Draft was Duke freshman Brandon Ingram, a high Lottery pick to be
sure. And, Ingram may well wind up living up to the hype. But his rookie year in
the NBA was humbling. And several other guys who weren’t taken nearly as high
are still playing for their respective teams in the playoffs, while Ingram
slogged through a 26-56 season with the Los Angeles Lakers.
Successful threes come in all sizes. Jaylen Brown, taken third, is a high-flier
who had the good fortune to be taken by a good team, the Boston Celtics, as he
learned his craft and got comfortable shooting 3-pointers. Taurean Prince had to
grind his way into the Atlanta Hawks’ rotation as a defense-first small forward
with a rapidly expanding offensive game. The Chicago Bulls’ Paul Zipser could
shoot, but the second-round pick had to become more of a playmaker to earn more
minutes — which he has.
The point is, there’s no template for what makes an effective small forward in
the NBA. And this year’s group of small forwards in the 2017 Draft are as
eclectic as ever. There are snipers and grunts; rebounders and shot blockers,
strong tough guys who can lock you up and blossoming wings with amazing length
just touching the surface of what they can do. They won’t all make it in the
league; in fact, most won’t. But there will be surprises. There always are.
The evaluations go in this order:
• Point guards
• Shooting guards
• Small forwards
• Power forwards (May 1)
• Centers (May 15)
When we’re not doing these Big Boards, the the regular Morning Tip column will
appear.
And so you can mark your calendars, the NBA’s Draft Lottery is on May 16.
A note on the rankings:
This is not a predictor of when these players will be taken. These rankings,
based on discussions with dozens of NBA and college coaches, and NBA college
scouts and team executives, address the question of how ready players are to
play the position which they are assigned: In other words, if there was a game
tonight, who would play better at that position tonight, not in three years.
Players are ranked based on the position that the coaches and scouts believe is
their best NBA position, and even then, there is always disagreement between
teams.
We include underclassmen that are expected to declare for the Draft, or are at
least thinking strongly about it. No one who hasn’t thought about declaring is
going to be swayed by seeing his name on a Draft board. So we include everyone.
Players are listed at the position at which NBA people believe they’ll play as
pros.
For example, the consensus of almost (not every) personnel person we spoke with
is that Kentucky freshman Malik Monk is more likely to be a shooting guard in
the pros, not a point guard. So, for our purposes, Monk will be listed as a two
on the Big Board.
Players who declare for the Draft can pull out within 10 days of the end of the
NBA Combine, scheduled this year for May 9-14 in Chicago, as long as they don’t
sign with an agent. This rule was instituted last year to give players more time
to make a more informed decision about their potential Draft status after
talking with and working out for NBA teams at the Combine.
Also, the NCAA’s rule change — enacted last January — that gives underclassmen
more time after declaring for the Draft to withdraw and return to college (the
deadline is now 10 days after the Chicago Combine, running this year from May
10-14) will certainly increase the number of underclassmen who declare.
Previously, underclassmen only had until the day before the college spring
signing period in April to withdraw after putting their names into the Draft.
The new rule also allows college players to continue practicing with their
college coaches after entering the Draft if they’re invited to the Combine,
which colleges hope will encourage players to continue going to class and
remaining eligible in case they decide to return.
Again: This is not a mock Draft (though one of those is, sadly, coming). They
are a complete waste of time, especially this long before June. No one has any
idea what will happen between now and then; we don’t even know all the teams
that will be in the Lottery, much less when they’ll be picking. We don’t know if
there will be a major injury that will impact what a team wants or needs. What
follows is a rough consensus of what NBA personnel people, GMs and coaches, and
college coaches that I trust — and that, obviously, can’t be quoted by name —
believe is the pro potential for this year’s crop of college and international
players.
• “Sleepers” are players almost certain to go in the second round but who may
have first-round talent or otherwise have an impact on the teams that select
them if they overcome perceived shortcomings.
• “Some Scouts Like” will refer to players whose intentions are not yet known
for certain, but who are viewed as potentially draftable if they do. Emphasis on
“potentially.”
• The height and weight measurements are from each player’s respective team or
school. Once the Combine takes place, we’ll update this list with official
numbers from there. If a player is not invited to the Combine, his height and
weight is his listed one from his school and/or his pro team if he’s an
international prospect.
* * *
David Aldridge’s Big Board 2017: Small Forwards
Rank | Name | School/Team | Class/Age | HT | WT > Projected
1. Josh Jackson | Kansas | Freshman | 6-8 | 207 > High lottery
2. Jayson Tatum | Duke | Freshman | 6-8 | 205 > High lottery
3. Jonathan Issac | Florida State | Freshman | 6-10 | 210 > Mid-lottery
4. OG Anunoby | Indiana | Sophomore | 6-8 | 230 > Mid/late first round
5. Tyler Lydon | Syracuse | Sophomore | 6-9 | 223 > Late first round
6. Rodions Kurucs | FC Barcelona Lassa | 19 | 6-7 | 190 > Late first round
7. Semi Ojeleye | SMU | Junior | 6-7 | 235 > Late first round/Early second round
8. Delvin Robinson | Florida | Junior | 6-8 | 200 > Second round
9. Dillon Brooks | Oregon | Junior | 6-7 | 225 > Second round
10. Jaron Blosssomgame | Clemson | Senior | 6-7 | 220 > Second round
SLEEPERS: Malcolm Hill, 6-6, 225, Illinois; V.J. Beacham, 6-8, 201, Notre Dame;
Peter Jok, 6-6, 205, Iowa; Aleksander Vezenkov (21), 6-7, 225, FC Barcelona;
Wesley Iwundu, 6-7, 225, Kansas State; Kris Jenkins, 6-6, 235, Villanova
SOME SCOUTS LIKE: L.J. Peak (JR), 6-5, 215, Georgetown; Mikal Bridges (SO), 6-7,
210, Villanova
* * *
Iguodala-like traits mark Jackson’s game
To the shock of absolutely no one, Kansas freshman Josh Jackson officially
declared for the Draft Monday. A guy who’s almost certain to be a top-three
pick, the 6-foot-8 Jackson would have been crazy not to come out.
The Kansas freshman was as good as advertised in his one season in Lawrence,
winning Big 12 Freshman of the Year and all-Big 12 first team honors. And while
his numbers weren’t eye-popping (16.3 points, 7.4 rebounds and 3 assists), he
was rock solid consistent most of the year for the Jayhawks, scoring in double
figures in 33 of their 36 games, including double-doubles in his final two
games, in the NCAA Tournament, against Purdue and Oregon — which followed a
23-point effort in the second round against Michigan State, a game that meant a
lot to Jackson, a Detroit native who’d been recruited heavily by the Spartans.
More to the point of NBA types, his defensive capabilities have drawn
comparisons to Kawhi Leonard and Andre Iguodala — and if he can develop a
consistent jumper, one scout said, he’d be on a trajectory like that of Wolves
forward Andrew Wiggins.
“I freaking love him,” said an executive of a team that should be fairly high in
the Lottery. “This guy’s getting better as he goes, so I can’t see how he can’t
be Iguodala — a guy who can defend and pass, and who’s becoming a better
shooter. I know the Kansas people, and in terms of work and all that stuff …
they were absolutely in love with him as a kid — not a little bit, a lot. He
has Wiggins’ athleticism with character off the chain.”
There is some question about that character, however, as Jackson has been
involved in separate incidents during his year in Kansas.
Jackson wound up involved in an incident involving his Jayhawks’ teammate,
Lagerald Vick, and Vick’s ex-girlfriend, McKenzie Calvert, a member of the
Kansas women’s basketball team, last December. Calvert reportedly threw a drink
at Vick in a Lawrence bar. As she was leaving the bar afterward, Jackson
allegedly followed her and then threatened her with physical violence. Jackson
then, according to witnesses’ statement, then kicked at Calvert’s car while she
was in it, causing damage to the vehicle.
Though he issued an apology through his attorney offering to pay for the damage
to the car, Jackson pled not guilty last week to one count of misdemeanor
property damage.
Jackson was then suspended from Kansas’ first game in the Big 12 Tournament in
March, after informing the team he had struck a parked vehicle on campus in
February and left without leaving his information for the owner of the other
car.
NBA front office people say the two incidents don’t of and by themselves rise to
the level of disqualifying Jackson from consideration for being taken high in
the Draft. But they will investigate those incidents to see if they’re part of
any kind of repeated pattern.
On the floor, the biggest concerns are with Jackson’s shot. He wound up shooting
a healthy 38 percent on 3-pointers, but that came after he started just 9 of 38
behind the arc during the first half of the season.
“At the beginning of the year, everybody was backing off of him, letting him
shoot the jumper,” said the coach of one team that played Kansas this season. ”
… I don’t know if he put the work in at the gym or what — he’s got that little
hitch in his shot — but like they say, all that counts is results. If he can
get that midrange going, because he can rise over top of people.”
A Pacific Division executive echoed that sentiment, though others wonder if the
deeper NBA 3-pointer will cause Jackson problems, at least initially.
“There’s a lot less of a concern now than there was in the early part of the
season, maybe the middle of the season,” the executive said. “He shot 40 percent
the last month, month and a half of the year (Jackson shot 48.1 percent, 25 of
52, behind the arc the last seven weeks of the season). He’s been the best
player in his class. He has that kind of pedigree. If he can consistently shoot
from NBA range, he does so many other things well he’s going to be a good NBA
player.”
Jackson doesn’t have a pristine handle yet — “you don’t want him to go past two
dribbles, three max,” the college coach said. But he’s plenty good everywhere
else.
“He’s kind of like Wiggins a little bit,” the college coach said. “Wiggins left
after his freshman year; Josh Jackson is a better shooter (than Wiggins was at
the same time). Josh has got crazy athleticism, but Wiggins is elite. They both
can defend. They both rebound. They both do similar stuff. But Wiggins is more
athletic, and Josh is more consistent.”
Tatum ready to help an NBA team now
After Jackson, scouts and front office types are split on whether taking Duke
freshman Jayson Tatum or Florida State freshman Jonathan Isaac is the better
play.
Both are immensely talented; the decision on which one to take likely depends on
the state of your team and the current level of expectations. A team that needs
to compete more immediately could take Tatum and sleep well, but a team with a
little more time to build a roster might be willing to take Isaac — who scouts
think may take a little longer to reach his potential, but whose ceiling may
also be greater.
“We probably have Tatum a little ahead,” a Pacific Division executive said.
“He’s got prototypical size, length and strength. For a 19-year-old, he’s got an
unbelievably good body. He looks like an NBA vet. He scores the ball so easily.
He’s the best shooter of the three. He does need to get better defensively. He’s
able to do both of those things, score from all ranges. The question is, can he
combine all of that, be a three-level scorer (three-pointer, midrange and in the
post)? From what I’ve seen he has a chance to do all three, even though he
hasn’t done it consistently.”
No one, though, compares Tatum to Iguodala or Leonard defensively. His skill is
putting the ball in the basket, which he did well for the Blue Devils, averaging
almost 17 points a game, including seven games with 20 or more points, in a
little more than 33 minutes a night. He didn’t dominate, but he was there at key
moments late in the season — 25 points and six rebounds against Louisville in
the ACC Tournament quarterfinals; 24 points and seven rebounds against North
Carolina in the semis.
Said a Southwest Division man: “I like him a lot. The game is natural to him.
Can score and make plays for others. I am a fan. He will be a very good pro.”
The third team all-ACC and all-ACC freshman selection thus is a little higher on
most Draft boards than Isaac.
“I think I’d lead towards Tatum, with a caveat,” a Central Division personnel
man said. “I think Tatum could help you today. You could put him in for 20
minutes and he’d do just fine. Isaac could take some time. But he’s got real,
real length and size to be special special. The safe choice would be Tatum. The
flyer would be Isaac.”
Tatum shot just 34 percent on 3-pointers for Duke. NBA evaluators believe,
though, that he can ultimately become credible enough to be a three-level scorer
in the NBA — on 3-pointers, from the midrange and in the post. (Indeed, some
also think Tatum may be able to play some power forward in the pros.)
“I think Tatum’s better than he showed this year,” an Atlantic Division college
evaluator said. “Duke struggled a lot this year. I think he was a victim of
that. He makes buckets. He’s challenged east-west as a defender, but … offense
is the currency of our game. I think he’ll score. He’s got a hundred ways to
score. He can make buckets and he can make passes.”
The 19-year-old Isaac, though, is the choice of others — a remarkably fast
ascent for someone who was just 6-foot-3 as a sophomore in high school.
“I’d take Isaac even though he’s not a true three,” a veteran Central Division
evaluator said. “He can do everything a three needs to do, but he can play four,
too, because he has size. Much more well-rounded game than Tatum.”
Issac oozes with NBA potential
At 6-foot-10 (which does not include the frohawk he rocks), and 210 pounds,
Jonathan Isaac does not have the girth and strength that Tatum has. But, he’s
19. Chances are he’s far from done putting on weight. The possibility of what he
can become physically — he has a 7-foot-1 wingspan — leaves NBA types
salivating.
“Isaac is a little bit more unique,” a longtime team executive said.
“How does his size and his body fit in? He’s got that [Kristaps] Porzingis-kind
of game and build. Porzingis found a niche; does this guy find a niche at his
size? You really have to use some vision to think about where he fits in down
the road.”
Isaac shot 51 percent from the floor for the Seminoles, taking just eight shots
a game.
“He has such a unique skillset at his size and his length,” a Northwest Division
executive said. “He has more upside to Tatum when you’re drafting up there —
and I think Tatum is going to be very good. It’s hard to predict but I think
he’ll be able to put some strength on and be able to be strong enough. Having
seen him up close and personal I’ll probably have a better idea. But he is
thin.”
And on a team that featured more than a couple of NBA prospects, including guard
Dwayne Bacon and center Michael Ojo, Isaac didn’t force things.
“From everything we’ve been told he’s a really high character kid,” a Southeast
Division exec said. “He’s the least accomplished of the three but he did have a
good season. He’s not as assertive as Tatum or Jackson; part of that is his
youthfulness. But he has two-way potential. Good hands, touch. He can play four
if he adds some muscle to his frame. If you need help in a game today those two
guys are probably more ready.”
Also in Isaac’s favor is the job that Florida State coach Leonard Hamilton has
done in Tallahassee since taking over as coach in 2002. Since coming to FSU,
Hamilton has developed several players who’ve gone on to NBA careers, including
Toney Douglas, Bernard James, Al Thornton, Chris Singleton, Von Wafer, Okaro
White and Malik Beasley. NBA people like players from schools where players have
been pushed to get better — and who have gotten better.
“If you get a Michigan State guy or a Marquette guy, you know they’ve been
coached, been pushed with a certain degree of force … there are benefits to
that, to know that a kid’s not going to crumble, not going to break under
scrutiny.
Anunoby’s defense a bright spot
Indiana sophomore OG Anunoby was a potential late Lottery pick until he tore his
right ACL in a game against Penn State in January. The 6-foot-8, 230-pound
forward nonetheless declared for the Draft, after averaging11 points and 5
rebounds in just 16 games. Obviously, teams will want to examine him before the
Draft to get a sense of where he is in his rehabilitation.
“If he were healthy it would be different,” a Western Conference front office
man said. “If you’re talking about (drafting him) toward the end of the Lottery,
I don’t know if you can take a guy with that kind of injury. But, he’s a great
defender. I’m concerned about him a little him offensively.”
Assuming a full return to health, Anunoby has significant potential as someone
expected to be able to guard threes and fours at the next level. And with the
success the Golden State Warriors and other teams have had switching
successfully on defense one through five, a frontcourt player with that kind of
skill level will be valued greatly. (Witness his work here picking up Kansas
guard Frank Mason out top and staying with and in front of him during the entire
play. A foul was called, but it wasn’t on Anunoby.)
“Physically, he’s got the strength and the power to play the four,” one Eastern
Conference executive said. “There will be some matchups where he just doesn’t
have the height, but he’s going to have enough versatility that (against) most
backup fours, he’s going to be able to match up against them. The league is
spacing and shooting; there’s not many power fours anymore. (But) I can’t see OG
turning into Kawhi, personally. Kawhi was such a great rebounder in college, and
that’s not what OG does.”
But Anunaby will have to show he’s capable of doing more offensively. His
3-point shooting cratered last season, from 45 percent as a freshman to 31
percent in his limited action.
“He can guard a three,” one college scout said. “But that guy has no way in hell
of playing offensively at the three. I don’t like him because I don’t think he
knows how to play. This guy is gonna be a four. That guy’s bigger than 230. His
legs are huge. He looks like an NFL player.”
Shooting marks Lydon’s game
Syracuse sophomore Tyler Lydon brings several potential skills to the table. He
was fifth in the ACC in rebounding (8.6 per game) and sixth in blocked shots
(1.4), while also shooting almost 40 percent on 3-pointers. Even though the
Orange didn’t make the NCAAs this season that kind of versatility and athletic
ability has Lydon pegged as a potential late first-round pick.
“He can really shoot it, but he’s not the most nimble athlete laterally,” one
scout said. “But he does have an NBA skill.”
Kurucs shining in overseas play
Latvian forward Rodions Kurucs has been a pro for three years, most recently
with Spanish powerhouse FC Barcelona, which has used him on its “B” team, Lassa,
which plays in Spain’s second tier league, LEB Oro. (The Barcelona “A” team,
with more proven talent and top prospects, plays in Spain’s ACB League,
generally considered the best pro league in the world outside of the NBA.) Lassa
was the first professional home of guard Mario Hezonja, who was taken with the
fifth pick of the 2015 Draft by the Orlando Magic.
http://www.nba.com/draft/2015/
The 19-year-old Kurucs, who led Latvia’s Under 16 team to the title game at the
2014 European championships, has gotten decent playing time with Lassa, and
would be a potential stash player for a team with multiple first-round picks,
though he’s had a couple of knee injuries that have slowed him the last few
years as he’s risen in international play.
“He’s skilled, versatile, can get on a roll shooting the ball,” a Southeast
Division executive said.
The issue with Kurucs is, as with many young players good enough to play for a
powerhouse organization like Barcelona, his existing contract, which has two
years remaining. Some NBA teams fear that the buyout to get him out of the deal
and allow him to sign with an NBA club is prohibitively expensive. Several
scouts are planning to see Kurucs toward the end of this month; he’s just
started Euroleague play with the parent club.
Ojeleye able to fill either forward spot
SMU junior Semi Ojeleye is a little older (22) than most prospects these days,
but he was impressive for the Mustangs, winning American Athletic Conference
Player of the Year and Scholar-Athlete of the Year honors. The transfer from
Duke averaged 18.5 points and 6.8 rebounds (and shot 42 percent on threes) at
SMU after sitting out the 2015-16 season while the Mustangs were banned from
postseason play.
Ojeleye had some huge games — 30 points at Temple in February, and a
career-high 36 against East Carolina in the first round of the AAC tournament,
which finished 30-5 after losing to USC in the first round of the NCAA
tournament. At 6-foot-7, 235 pounds, Ojeleye could play both forward positions
in the NBA. But right now, he’s contemplating whether to remain in the Draft or
return to SMU for his senior season. He’d likely be a second-round pick at
present this year.
Robinson boasts reliable 3-point shot
Junior Devin Robinson put his name into the Draft after averaging 11.1 points
and 6.1 rebounds last season for Florida. He’s got good size (6-8, 200) for a
three, and he shot the ball pretty well – 39.1 percent on 3-pointers — for the
Gators, leaving the possibility of him seeing some stretch four play in the NBA.
“He’s long, got a good looking shot,” said the coach of a team that played
Florida this season. “He’s a bigger Bruce Bowen and a little more athletic. He’s
going to make the corner three. He’s an unbelievable defender. Good footwork.
Athletic, finishes decent around the basket. But he can flat out shoot the
corner three. He needs to work on his ballhandling. But he’s got a good
basketball IQ and pretty good instincts.”
Can Brooks’ game work in NBA?
Oregon’s Dillon Brooks declared for the Draft last week, after a storybook
season where he was Pac 12 Player of the Year and the Ducks made the Final Four,
losing a heartbreaker to North Carolina in the national semifinals. Brooks
played power forward for Oregon down the stretch of the season, after the Ducks
lost center Chris Boucher to injury, forcing forward Jordan Bell into the middle
and Brooks to the four. But his NBA future is almost certainly at the three.
“I like his toughness, fearlessness and intensity,” a Pacific Division executive
said. “I think he is a poor man’s Jared Dudley…but I’m not sure he can guard
wings effectively at this level.”
Brooks has some work to do to convince scouts he can make the leap.
“He’s as competitive as they come, as confident as they come,” a Southeast
Division exec said. “But I do worry about how his game will translate. He was a
college four who won’t have the size to play the four at our level. Has to prove
he has the quickness and shot and ability to move his feet defensively to play
against three. He’s competitive but at some level you have to have the skill
level.”
Said another veteran personnel man: “he’s not in the same class of the other
(top) guys. I don’t know where I’d put him. I like the other kid, Bell, just as
much. That team, each player was so aggressive. They all played hard. They all
competed. Well-coached team. Brooks is not the most athletic kid in the world,
but he’s a tough nut. He’ll be in the league.”
Blossomgame must add 3-point range
Clemson’s Jaron Blossomgame thought about entering the Draft last year, but
returned for his senior season, earning third team all-ACC honors while
averaging 17.6 points and 6.3 rebounds. He had some big moments in big games —
24 points and seven rebounds against North Carolina, 25 points and seven
rebounds at Pittsburgh, 24 points and eight rebounds against Florida State. But
he showed little ability to stretch the floor, shooting just 25.5 percent on
3-pointers.
“He’s kind of an undersized power four,” said one coach whose team played
Clemson this season. “Not a great 3-point shooter; he goes out to about 14 feet.
Isolates from the foul line. He’s got a strong right hand. I think it’s a little
mechanical. He’s got a funky release off the corner of his hand. It’s
correctable, but it’s not smooth at all.”
And some notes on the others …
• Notre Dame senior V.J. Beacham, an honorable mention all ACC selection.
• Illinois’ Malcolm Hill, who was second team all Big 10 as a senior after
finishing third on the school’s all-time scoring list (1,817 points) and leading
Illinois in scoring, steals and assists.
• Bulgarian forward Aleksandar Vezenkov, a 21-year-old prospect plying for the
Barcelona A team in the ACB League who may put his name into the Draft.
• Iowa swingman Peter Jok, a first-team all-Big 10 pick who averaged 19.9 points
for the Hawkeyes and was a career 38 percent three-point shooter over four
years.
• Kansas State’s Wesley Iwundu, a third team all-Big 12 choice.
• Villanova hero Kris Jenkins, who won the national championship as a junior
then watched his adopted brother Nate Britt do the same for North Carolina.
• L.J. Peak and Mikal Bridges are currently projected as late second-rounders.
Longtime NBA reporter, columnist and Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Famer
David Aldridge is an analyst for TNT. You can e-mail him here, find his archive
here and follow him on Twitter.
The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NBA, its
clubs or Turner Broadcasting.
