The combination was 1-7-9-10.
“I haven’t taken them out of my pocket,” Boston Celtics co-owner Steve Pagliuca
said Wednesday night, and he hadn’t, producing the four ping-pong balls that
changed the future of the NBA for the next few years. That it was Boston which
possessed them surely made Red Auerbach’s ghost cackle, cigar smoke wafting from
a nearby ashtray. The deal that made Boston a player again in the NBA was
Auerbachian if there ever was one, a trade that has already netted the Celtics a
ridiculously good prospect in rookie Jaylen Brown and will pay dividends this
year and next.
The Draft lottery last Tuesday confirmed Boston’s status over the 2017
festivities, but it also gave shape to what is one of the better classes in
recent years. Now we can see the Los Angeles Lakers, who were on the verge of
going out of the picture for the next couple of years, being able to add the
dynamic young point guard that Magic Johnson so badly wants. The post-Process
Philadelphia 76ers have some nervous months ahead waiting for Joel Embiid to
recover from yet another surgical procedure, but they’re sitting pretty at No.
3, able to get just about anyone they want.
Of course, the conspiracy nuts were out in force: the fix was in for the Lakers,
because Luke Walton’s hopes were interpreted as certainty by the tin foil crowd.
(This, again, conveniently ignored the fact that the Knicks fell from their
potential seventh spot in the first round to eighth — remember, kids, a
conspiracy doesn’t have to make sense and doesn’t require a shred of proof; only
your own delusions need to fuel the imaginary beast.)
Now that there is at least Draft position certainty, we can begin to think with
some rationality about where some of the top prospects will go. The following is
not a mock Draft. It is, however, educated speculation, allowing for some wiggle
room and the possibility of moves up or down in the first. Only one team doesn’t
have to do anything at all and can take anyone it wants, with everyone else
powerless to stop it.
CUT TO: Auerbach, lighting and puffing, contentedly.
1. BOSTON CELTICS (53-29)
HAVES: Perimeter defense, depth
HAVE NOTS: Rebounding, rim protection
In their honest moments, Celtics people will tell you that their group — which
is in the midst of the Eastern Conference finals — overachieved this season,
and that talent acquisition is still a priority. So it’s hard to see Boston
moving this pick, even though it came up in trade discussions at the deadline
for Paul George and Jimmy Butler. Of course, Isaiah Thomas is central to solving
the puzzle; will Boston put $180 million into Thomas, the second-team all-NBA
player this season, in the summer of 2018, when he’ll be an unrestricted free
agent — but will also be 29? He’s an amazing player, but while he has vastly
improved as a passer since coming to Boston, his greatest skill is putting the
ball in the basket. In consecutive years, playoff opponents have successfully
gotten the ball out of his hands through aggressive doubles and hard shows —
and he’s not getting any bigger. Either Markelle Fultz or Lonzo Ball is going to
be hard to pass up regardless of Thomas’s future, and Fultz’s ability to play
off the ball as well would be more of a natural fit with Thomas.
2. LOS ANGELES LAKERS (26-56)
HAVES: Young athletes/length
HAVE NOTS: Team defense
For the third straight year, the Lakers will have the second pick in the Draft.
But this time, they’re likely to strike (Forum blue and) gold with whichever of
the remaining top point guards is still available after Boston picks first.
Cali-born and UCLA one-and-done Lonzo Ball has been linked to L.A. for months.
His outspoken father, Lavar, has all but threatened famine and pestilence to
come to SoCal if the Lakers don’t take his kid. But it would make all the
basketball sense in the world to take Lonzo Ball; while the Lakers haven’t given
up on D’Angelo Russell, his NBA future looks more off the ball than on it, and
Ball’s outstanding and willing passing eye is going to be hard to pass up. And
he is a natural marketing fit, something I understand is of some importance out
in LaLa Land.
3. PHILADELPHIA 76ERS (28-54)
HAVES: Frontcourt depth
HAVE NOTS: Scoring, rebounding
Don’t think there’s much chance the Sixers move the pick, even though several
teams are lining up in hopes they can move to what almost certainly will be the
Josh Jackson line of demarcation. With Joel Embiid, Jahlil Okafor and Dario
Saric up front, and Ben Simmons healthy, a wing seems the obvious pick here.
Would Philly go for Kentucky’s Malik Monk this high, or make the safer choice of
Kansas’ Jackson, a potential superstar at the three?
4. PHOENIX SUNS (24-58)
HAVES: Guard depth
HAVE NOTS: Defense
The Suns’ problem isn’t scoring; they were ninth in the league this season in
points per game (107.7), even though they were a very poor 3-point shooting team
(33.2 percent, 27th in the league). Phoenix, though, was dead last in points
allowed per game (113.3) and there isn’t much on the roster that would lead one
to believe a defensive turnaround is possible any time soon. A point guard
wouldn’t seem to make sense with Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight still in place,
nor would a two seem to play with Devin Booker not yet 21. So a potential
two-way small forward like Jackson would be a no-brainer if he is still on the
board at four. If not, the Suns could certainly go for Duke’s Jayson Tatum or
Florida State’s Jonathan Isaac. But if the Suns truly covet Jackson, engaging
Philly to move up one spot would still allow the Sixers to take Tatum.
5. SACRAMENTO KINGS (32-50)
HAVES: Big man potential
HAVE NOTS: Point guard
The Kings actually got some good fortune for once in the Lottery; they got the
Pelicans’ first-round pick when New Orleans didn’t get a top-three pick in the
Lottery, thus adding the 10th pick overall to their own first-rounder. With a
point guard deep Draft, this must be the year for Sacramento to finally solve
its floor general problem, which has throttled the franchise, basically, since
Mike Bibby started slowing down. A dynamic lead guard like Kentucky’s De’Aaron
Fox would continue the slow march toward progress the Kings have made in the
last few months. With Buddy Hield in place from the DeMarcus Cousins deal, the
Kings have a chance to solidify a backcourt that could grow together. If Fox is
gone, N.C. State’s Dennis Smith would make sense. At 10, Sacramento would then
have a chance to replace Rudy Gay, an unrestricted free agent this summer, if an
Isaac was on the board. If not, there will likely be several fours from which to
pick (maybe Gonzaga’s Zach Collins) to pair alongside third-year center Willie
Cauley-Stein.
6. ORLANDO MAGIC (29-53)
HAVES: Frontcourt size, depth
HAVE NOTS: 3-point shooting
The Magic is, once again, starting over, looking for a new GM who surely will
take a blowtorch to what is a mishmash of a roster. Other than Aaron Gordon,
back at the four after a strange attempt to make him a 3-and-D guy last season,
there’s no certainty anywhere. Point guard Elfrid Payton showed promising signs
of growth last season but is still ghastly from 3-point range (27.4 percent last
season), exemplifying a team-wide trend. Orlando was 29th overall in 3-point
shooting and last in the league in corner 3-point percentage (29.7). How is that
even possible in this age? Monk’s shooting (39.7 percent on 3-pointes last
season at Kentucky) and scoring ability would make a lot of sense here.
7. MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES (31-51)
HAVES: Major young talent
HAVE NOTS: Perimeter shooting
Set at two positions — small forward (Andrew Wiggins) and wherever Karl-Anthony
Towns plays — Minnesota could try to address its bottom 10 3-point shooting if
Monk was still on the board. Failing that, the Wolves could potentially go for
an elite power forward prospect in Arizona’s Lauri Markkanen if they’re
comfortable with Towns at the five long-term. A four with the shooting
capabilities of the Finnish marksman would certainly open up the floor for
Wiggins and Towns and give coach Tom Thibodeau some frontcourt flexibility, with
Gorgui Dieng still in the mix at center.
8. NEW YORK KNICKS (31-51)
HAVES: Centers, A Unicorn (aka Kristaps Porzingis)
HAVE NOTS: Point guard
The Knicks remain in suspended animation as a franchise until the Carmelo
Anthony mishegas is resolved, leaving their Draft possibilities in flux. If
Anthony uses his substantial leverage (and trade veto power) to remain in town
another season, New York would need to address point guard — whether or not
Derrick Rose comes back, he’s not the long-term solution there. New York will
likely have a choice of N.C. State’s Dennis Smith or France point Frank
Ntilikina. There are some who believe that Smith, the Wolfpack freshman, could
be the best of all the young point guard prospects this season, such is his
toughness and ability. Ntilikina is a potential stud in the mold of the Atlanta
Hawks’ Dennis Schroeder. But if Anthony agrees to a trade, which would suddenly
open up minutes at the three next season, Isaac wouldn’t be a bad call here,
either.
9. DALLAS MAVERICKS (33-49)
HAVES: Point guard depth
HAVE NOTS: Scoring, rebounding
The Mavericks took a lot of 3-pointers last season — fifth in the league in
makes, sixth in attempts — but were only middle of the pack in 3-point
percentage and last in the NBA in scoring. Some of the scoring issue was due to
coach Rick Carlisle taking the air out of the ball, out of necessity, given the
team’s defensive issues. Nerlens Noel, acquired at mid-season, should mitigate
some of that leakage long-term, leaving the Mavs free to try and find the
successor to Dirk Nowitzki at the four. If Markkanen is still on the board, he’d
certainly fit the bill; if not, Duke’s Luke Kennard, a potential successor to
Wesley Matthews at the two, wouldn’t be a reach.
10. SACRAMENTO KINGS (See above)
11. CHARLOTTE HORNETS (36-46)
HAVES: Ballhandling, playmaking
HAVE NOTS: Bench depth
The Hornets were middle of the pack in many categories last season, but one of
their five-man lineups stood out: Kemba Walker at the one, Marco Belinelli at
the two, Nicolas Batum at the three, Frank Kaminsky at the four and Cody Zeller
at the five. That quintet, per NBA.com/Stats, had an offensive rating of 128.6
in 94 minutes together last season. It’s a small sample size, but telling; that
lineup featured three of Charlotte’s top four 3-point shooters last season. So
it wouldn’t be dumb for the Hornets to further enhance their perimeter stroke by
taking someone like Duke’s Kennard if he was still on the board.
12. DETROIT PISTONS (37-45)
HAVES: Wing depth
HAVE NOTS: 3-point shooting
If, as Stan Van Gundy says, the Pistons are still cool with Reggie Jackson at
the point, then Kennard would be a sensible play as the team contemplates how
much it’s willing to give restricted free agent two guard Kentavious
Caldwell-Pope. You could also see SVG being high on a talent like Indiana’s O.G.
Anunoby, a potential 3-and-D talent coming off of an ACL tear. The Pistons need
to make a call at the four, too, with Jon Leuer and/or Tobias Harris splitting
starts through the season. If Detroit wanted to go in another direction entirely
at that position, a choice of Collinses — Gonzaga’s Zach or Wake Forest’s John
— could be in order.
13. DENVER NUGGETS (40-42)
HAVES: Scoring, rebounding
HAVE NOTS: Team defense
The emergence this season of “The Joker” — aka, Nikola Jokic — changed the
calculus of the Nuggets going forward. With the second-year center exploding
onto the scene, Denver has a much more linear path back to respectability than
appeared possible a year ago. The Nuggets score a ton of points. Offense is not
the issue as they boast diversified talents in Jokic (the post) to Will Barton
(off the bounce) to Wilson Chandler (driving to the cup) to Danilo Gallinari
(firing away on 3-pointers). They need someone to give them some identity at the
other end of the floor. Anunoby could do that. But if Denver wants to double
down on offense, any from among either North Carolina swingman Justin Jackson,
Louisville guard Donovan Mitchell or Terrence Ferguson, who played this past
season in Australia for the Adelaide 36ers, would add to the fireworks.
14. MIAMI HEAT (41-41)
HAVES: Shot blocking, defense
HAVE NOTS: Consistent front court scoring
The Heat’s rise from nowhere to the very precipice of the playoffs in just a
couple of months needs to be assessed soberly by Miami’s coaches. Was that a
harbinger of things to come? Did Dion Waiters and James Johnson turn the corner
from okay rotation guys to top-of-the-scouting-report players? That will
certainly color Miami’s decision making in the Draft. The Heat’s position means
it can be pretty open looing for the best player and fit to augment the roster.
Other than point guard and center, any of the available players noted above
would work, and if a potential-laden four like California sophomore Ivan Rabb
has great pre-Draft workouts, it wouldn’t be a shock to see someone take a flier
on him in the top half.
TEAM OF THE WEEK
Cleveland Cavaliers (2-1): The Cavs’ second-half collapse Sunday night, blowing
a 21-point lead early in the third quarter en route to a Game 3 Eastern
Conference finals loss to Boston, doesn’t change the utter dominance they’ve
shown for six of the eight quarters against the Celtics. Kevin Love looks shot
out of a cannon, such is his confidence; the Cavs haven’t even really missed the
struggling Kyle Korver or Deron Williams off their bench.
TEAM OF THE WEAK
Turkey (0-1): Oklahoma City center Enes Kanter claimed his native government
cancelled his passport because of his strong views against Turkish President
Tayyip Erdogan, leaving him a man without a country for a few harrowing hours
this past weekend. Thank goodness Kanter immediately used social media to detail
his detainment, which certainly put public pressure (along with subtle private
entreaties from the NBA) on Turkey to knock off the nonsense and let Kanter on
his way. He arrived back in the States on Sunday afternoon after spending
several hours in Romania Saturday; Kanter said the Turkish government had
cancelled his passport, a tactic that can sometimes lead to a native citizen
being extradited back to Turkey — something that decidedly would not have been
in Kanter’s best interest.
Longtime NBA reporter, columnist and Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Famer
David Aldridge is an analyst for TNT. You can e-mail him here, find his archive
here and follow him on Twitter.
The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NBA, its
clubs or Turner Broadcasting.
