Jahlil Okafor is the preseason pick for Kia Rookie of the Year as the prime example of talent meeting opportunity, a prerequisite to winning the award. He has an NBA-ready post game and a great chance in Philadelphia to immediately become the focal point of the offense. He should score, and voters love points over all else.
But this is no way to begin a campaign.
Having already been dinged by some front offices for disappointing conditioning last season as a Duke one-and-done, Okafor played limited minutes in the 76ers’ preseason games and will likely open 2015-16 on Wednesday at Boston at less than 100 percent. The issue then becomes how soon he gets fully healthy.
This could be the 76ers being especially cautious with a top big-man prospect, and if anyone has regrettably earned that right it’s Philly. (Joel Embiid says hi.) Okafor was bothered by a sore right knee, missing about a week in one stretch, and there’s no reason to push anyone in October who has a roster spot assured, let alone the No. 3 pick. But 20.9 minutes for a rookie needing to prove he can impact beyond half-court offense and transition to the NBA pace jumps out even among those of us certain that preseason stats mean less than nothing.
Okafor is right back to going uphill with conditioning. Take a couple weeks to get to 100 percent and the topic goes away. It’ll be forgotten. But if the issue lingers, if he can’t play effectively into 30 minutes, his ROY candidacy has a problem.
1. Jahlil Okafor, Philadelphia 76ers
Another issue to watch: Whether Philly guards can get Okafor the ball at the right time in the right place. The Sixers have Isaiah Canaan and T.J. McConnell at the point and plan to eventually get Kendall Marshall, though no timetable has been set for his return from a torn ACL. Marshall can pass, but there is little reason to lock him in as the answer for a dependable distributor while on his fourth NBA team in four seasons — plus time in the NBA D-League — and coming off a knee injury.
2. Emmanuel Mudiay, Denver Nuggets
Mudiay is fast, fun, big and has point-guard instincts at 19. This ride is going to be a blast at times. But the roller-coaster will have big drops into the valley as Mudiay, having already shown he can get to the rim, needs to prove he can finish while adjusting to defenses waiting for him. Coach Michael Malone has talked to the No. 7 pick about keeping his dribble and bringing the ball back out to set up the offense.
3. Stanley Johnson, Detroit Pistons
Coach Stan Van Gundy started Marcus Morris in the season opener vs. Atlanta, preferring the size and experience of Morris. But Johnson will likely play a lot. That was the approach during preseason, when the No. 8 pick was a part-time starter and logged real minutes in both roles. Van Gundy could also use Morris and Johnson together and not worry that the Pistons would get worked over physically. Johnson is plenty strong, even at 19 years old, and there’s the comfort of Andre Drummond around the rim as the backstop, too.
4. Karl-Anthony Towns, Minnesota Timberwolves
Towns is the best long-term prospect in the class, but he is also on the same team as reigning Rookie of the Year Andrew Wiggins, veteran Kevin Martin, Shabazz Muhammad (coming off encouraging moments last season) and Zach LaVine (who had good stretches as a rookie). Towns will not be a featured performer right away. But he will start and have the benefit of veteran point guards Ricky Rubio and Andre Miller, who will be able to get him the ball.
5. D’Angelo Russell, Los Angeles Lakers
Jordan Clarkson, the surprise success of the 2014 rookie class, may retain the job as the starting point guard. But Russell’s time as a reserve may be measured with a stop watch. Maybe he replaces Clarkson. Maybe the Lakers make a ceremonial move and declare Kobe Bryant the starter at small forward, a spot he has played before, putting Russell and Clarkson in the lineup together.
6. Mario Hezonja, Orlando Magic
Hezonja’s athleticism will keep him on highlight reels and in front of voters, the kind of campaign marketing probably only Mudiay can match among the top 10. Hezonja is more than running downhill to the rim, though. If he develops his promising shooting stroke and hits some 3-pointers, he could make a serious climb up the board. The preseason stat that means nothing but could mean something? Hezonja shot 35.5 behind the arc, a solid showing for a rookie.
7. Kristaps Porzingis, New York Knicks
Porzingis as the opening-night starter at power forward is a great opportunity, even if the best part of his game is offense and he will play alongside scoring small forward Carmelo Anthony. Porzingis will get the ball, and watch the ability to create his own shot as a 7-footer. The question is whether he will get it enough to make an immediate impact. The prediction from Ladder HQ is that New York makes big improvements this season and Porzingis has an important role.
8. Willie Cauley-Stein, Sacramento Kings
Like Porzingis, Cauley-Stein could immediately make the opening lineup at power forward and play off established an established teammate in the frontcourt. Two of them, actually: DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay. Unlike Porzingis, WCS could impact on defense right away, enough to keep big minutes coming even without flashy numbers. After three seasons at Kentucky, he has an edge in experience that could prove valuable.
9. Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers
The question remains how capable he is of contributing as a rookie. That would have been the case anyway, though with a very promising future, now with the doubts whether his body is ready for the next 5 ½ months. Turner was kept to around 20 minutes a game in the preseason and has dealt with three injuries, albeit minor ones. A healthy Turner has a chance to move up the list.
10. Justin Anderson, Dallas Mavericks
An early sleeper pick. Anderson was the No. 21 selection, but after three seasons at Virginia. He defends, may play shooting guard and small forward, and has range out to the 3-point line. He is a candidate, in other words, to step right in and have an important role in Dallas, especially if Wesley Matthews plays long with a minutes restriction while recovering from a torn Achilles’ tendon.
Scott Howard-Cooper has covered the NBA since 1988. You can e-mail him here and follow him on Twitter.
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