By Dan Ferrara, NBA International
Oklahoma City point guard Russell Westbrook is undoubtedly the NBA’s greatest stat stuffer, leading the league in triple-doubles last season with 18, the most in 30 seasons.
With averages of 23.5 points, 10.4 assists and 7.8 rebounds per game a year ago, it’s only natural to wonder if Westbrook can be the first player since Oscar Robertson in 1961-62 to average a triple-double.
On the surface, he doesn’t have much further to go, as he’s just a few rebounds away. And with superstar Kevin Durant’s free agency departure to Golden State, there will be plenty more boards up for grabs, as Durant averaged a career-high 8.2 per game last season. The Thunder also traded away power forward Serge Ibaka to the Orlando Magic, thus theoretically freeing up another 6.8 rebounds.
With an even 15 rebounds being subtracted from the roster via the losses of Durant and Ibaka, Westbrook only needs to secure 14.6% (2.2 total) of them to reach his triple-double plateau. It seems quite reasonable given his aggression on the glass and his leaping ability. After all, Westbrook led all point guards in rebounding each of the past two seasons and has risen his rebounding average every season since 2010.
The rebounding argument assumes that he’ll be able to average double-digit assists without Durant, which is certainly not a given. Even with Durant averaging 28.2 points per game on just over 50% shooting, Westbrook barely made it into double-figures. Additionally, Westbrook had 18.3 potential assists per game last season but his 7.9 margin between potential and converted assists was fourth-highest in the league. Taking away Durant and Ibaka’s combined 49.5% shooting will likely lead to more Thunder misses off Westbrook passes, and therefore fewer assists.
In the eight games Westbrook played without Durant last season, Westbrook averaged 29.6 points, 9.6 assists and 7.3 rebounds per game – nothing to sneeze at, but not a triple-double. In fact, he only had one triple-double in those eight games and shot just 40.9% from the field. Without Durant, Westbrook was essentially a one-man team for the Thunder, and he forced the issue, dropping his numbers across the board aside from scoring.
It’s entirely possible that he tries to play “hero ball” again this season with far less talent on the roster. Take away one superstar from the duo, and the other tries to carry the team on his back, often times doing too much.
There’s little doubt that Westbrook’s scoring will rise next season as it did last year in the small sample size without Durant. His shooting should worsen due to forced shots and reckless drives when nobody else on the team can create their own shot and the offense is stagnant.
His assists and rebounds? Well, that’s anyone’s best guess.
New Thunder guard Victor Oladipo has shown the ability to be a distributor, averaging 4.0 assists per game for his career primarily as a shooting guard. If the Thunder elect to run both guards out there at the same time, it’s entirely possible that Oladipo will cut into Westbrook’s assist totals as well. That possibility combined with the fact that fewer shots will be going in off Westbrook’s passes because the talent on the roster has depleted makes averaging a triple-double an uphill climb to say the least.
One thing that can’t be quantified, however, is Westbrook’s hunger and determination. He will likely be more motivated this season given the fact that his co-pilot fled as a free agent to a Warriors team that knocked the Thunder out of the playoffs in the Western Conference Finals a few months ago, and that all but makes any statistical analysis highly dubious. We cannot accurately estimate the size of the chip on Westbrook’s shoulder but we can take an educational guess that it’s enormous. He’ll likely seek to prove to Durant that he made the wrong decision by carrying the Thunder to a championship by himself – and if Westbrook is out for revenge, there’s no telling what kind of numbers he can put up.
Based on talent alone, Westbrook can definitely average a triple-double. When you factor in how motivated he’ll be and the size of his role in the Thunder offense this coming season, it’s entirely possible that he can be the first player in over 50 years to accomplish the feat. It will just be a lot harder than last season given the events that have transpired since Westbrook last walked off the court for Oklahoma City.
