No player in the history of women’s college basketball has scored more points
than Washington’s Kelsey Plum… and she’s still not done. On Monday, she and the
12th-ranked Huskies will learn where they will open the NCAA Tournament as Plum
looks to lead the team back to the Final Four after making the program’s debut
appearance a season ago.
Plum enters the tournament with 3,431 career points, having passed the previous
record holder Jackie Stiles (3,393 points) with a 57-point performance in
Washington’s regular season finale on Feb. 25. That game was not only a
career-best for Plum, but the fifth-best single-game performance in NCAA women’s
basketball history. And who did she edge out of the top five? Jackie Stiles’
56-point game back in 2000.
Plum most likely isn’t done knocking Stiles down in the record books. The senior
guard enters the NCAA Tournament having scored 1,013 points this season, which
places her third behind Stiles (1,062) and Odyssey Sims (1,054) for the
single-season scoring record. If she stays close to her 31.7 points per game
scoring average, Plum will need just two games to add that record to her long
list of college accolades.
However the next few weeks play out, Plum will be in attendance for the 2017
WNBA Draft in April and her name will certainly be one of the first that WNBA
President Lisa Borders calls to welcome to the league.
Upon entering the WNBA, Plum will join four other members of the NCAA 3,000
point club — Brittney Griner (3,283 points at Baylor), Rachel Banham (3,093
points at Minnesota), Elena Delle Donne (3,039 points at Delaware) and Maya
Moore (3,036 at Connecticut). How good of company is that? Outside of Banham,
whose 2016 rookie season was cut short by a knee injury, the rest of this group
is among the most decorated players in the WNBA.
— Two Most Valuable Player Awards (Moore in 2014, Delle Donne in 2015)
— Two Defensive Player of the Year Awards (Griner in 2014 and 2015)
— Two Rookie of the Year Awards (Moore in 2011, Delle Donne in 2013)
— Two Scoring Titles (Moore in 2014, Delle Donne in 2015)
— Four WNBA Championships (Moore in 2011, 2013 and 2015; Griner in 2014)
— Seven All-WNBA First Team Selections (Moore 4, Delle Donne 2, Griner 1)
— Three All-WNBA Second Team Selections (Moore, Delle Donne, Griner)
Looking at the current landscape of WNBA players, only four reached the
3,000-point plateau in college, and only 16 even score 2,500 points. In all, 43
current WNBA players scored at least 2,000 points in college.
One player that is pretty far down that list is Diana Taurasi, who finished her
career at Connecticut with 2,156 points, but has been the most dominant scorer
the WNBA has seen over the past decade. Taurasi owns a WNBA record five scoring
titles and her career average of 19.9 points per game ranks third all-time and
first among players that have played at least 125 games.
Which, of course, begs the question: Does being a dominant scorer in college
translate to being a dominant scorer in the WNBA?
There is no clear-cut answer to that question as there are examples on both
sides. Delle Donne owns the third-highest scoring average in NCAA history (26.7
ppg) and the second-highest mark in WNBA history (20.5 ppg). Breanna Stewart
went from averaging 17.6 points during her four years at UConn to finishing her
rookie WNBA season at 18.3 points per game. On the flip side is Alysha Clark,
who finished with 2,865 points in 123 collegiate games and 875 points in her
first 156 games in the WNBA.
There are plenty of factors that come into play here, including playing time,
role on a particular team, and how a player works within a team’s offensive
strategy. But one of the key factors is the dramatic increase in the level of
competition. Some players, especially those from smaller schools, are able to
put up huge numbers in college, but are unable to translate that to the WNBA.
Stiles (above) had a promising start to her WNBA career coming out of what was
then called Southwest Missouri State (now Missouri State), winning Rookie of the
Year honors after averaging 14.9 points in her debut season. Unfortunately, she
would play just 21 more games in the WNBA as her career was cut short by a rash
of injuries.
When it comes to projecting how Plum will fare at the next level, both the
numbers and the eye test indicate that her skill set should translate well to
the WNBA game. Not only is she an outstanding shooter (.533 FG%, .429 3P%, .888
FT%), she is playmaker both for herself and her teammates. Her ability to create
her own shot, either in isolation situations or using the pick-and-roll, should
make her an asset to any WNBA team that lands her in the draft.
After her 57-point outburst against Utah to break Stiles’ record for most career
points in NCAA history, Plum did a number of interviews to discuss the
accomplishment. After recounting the game — how she wasn’t feeling very well
that day, what the record meant to her and the added attention that it has
brought to both her and her team — Plum was asked a question that has baffled
opposing coaching staffs for years.
“How would you defend you?” she was asked on SportsCenter.
A smile immediately came to her face as she began her response with a laugh:
“That’s a great question. Well, I don’t know if I should give that away though,
because I feel that’s some good juicy information,” she said. “I would just try
to play me really tough, I’d try to make me give up the ball a lot and not let
me get it back and hope I have an off night, I guess. I don’t know.”
‘I don’t know’ might be the right answer when it comes to the strategy to shut
down — or even slow down — Kelsey Plum.
Let’s dig into her stats a little deeper with the help of Synergy data just to
show how dangerous Plum is for opposing teams to defend.
She is unbelievably efficient in nearly every aspect of offense. The only
exceptions are plays she either does not utilize (post-ups, putbacks, pick and
roll – roll man) or uses very infrequently (coming off screens).
Plum and the Huskies get out in transition often — accounting for a quarter of
Plum’s possessions — but when things do slow down in the half court, Plum takes
over with a heavy dose of pick-and-roll (31.9% of possessions) and isolation
(12.5%). This is where her creativity shines and the comparisons to the NBA’s
James Harden spawned.
[wnba_video id=”48695″]
With every defense she faces focused on slowing her down, Plum is still able to
create open space to get her shots off. The lefty utilizes a deadly step-back to
create just enough distance to square up and fire with her ultra quick release.
When we dig deeper into the pick-and-roll stats, we can see that she is patient
(taking an early jump shot just 2.1% of the time) as she lets the play develop
to survey all of her options. Most often she dribbles off the pick and either
takes a dribble jumper (68.2% of the time), takes it all the way to the basket
(23.6% of the time) or takes a runner in the lane (6.7% of the time). And, as
expected, her shooting percentages (eFG%) are outstanding across the board —
58.1%, 52.9% and 54.5%, respectively.
While nearly all of the attention focused on Plum’s scoring, her playmaking
skills often get overlooked. She leads the Huskies in assists at 5.1 per game as
she is able to find her teammates when opponents send help to try to stop her
from scoring. Rather than take a difficult and well-defended shot of her own,
she’ll find an open teammate for a better look. And her 2-to-1
assist-to-turnover ratio maintains this theme of efficiency in all aspects of
her game.
Plum is nearly as dangerous in isolation as she is in pick-and-roll situations.
When it comes to isolations, opponents must force the lefty to drive right to
have any chance of slowing her down. On drives to the right, Plum scores 1.0
points per possession (which ranks in the 86th percentile of all players) as
compared to 1.33 points per possession when she drives left (which puts her in
the 99th percentile). Plum’s effective field goal percentage rises by over 10
percent on drives to the left as opposed to the right. She scores on just 45.5
percent of her drives to the right compared to nearly 61 percent of her drives
to her strong side partly due to the fact that she turns the ball over twice as
often when driving to the right.
In another parallel to Harden, Plum avoids taking inefficient long 2-pointers,
with under 10 percent of her jumpers coming from between 17 feet and the 3-point
line. And she does so with good reason as she only connects on 29 percent of
those shots. Instead, Plum either looks to get into the paint and to the rim or
work beyond the arc.
After reviewing the scouting report, Plum may have been right all along. The
best way to defend her is to make sure she can’t get her hands on the ball. And
if she does, try to force her right and into taking long mid-range shots. Then
hope that she has an off night.
Considering she’s scored 3,431 points in her career, there haven’t been many of
those over the past four years.
