Nothing can be officially won or lost for the Pistons tonight except a single basketball game, but beating Oklahoma City sure would go a long way toward wrapping up a playoff spot – especially if things go the way the odds suggest for the two teams on their heels.
A half-hour before the Pistons tip off with the NBA’s hottest team – OKC has won eight straight and by an average of 17.1 points, including a 19-point thumping at Toronto on Monday – Chicago plays at Indiana. The Bulls are 21/2 games behind the Pistons, two games down in the loss column, and Nate Silver’s 538 website says Chicago has only a 21 percent chance to win that game after losing at home to Atlanta on Monday.
Three hours after the Pistons start, Washington – with the same 36-37 record as Chicago – visits Golden State with a 10 percent shot at beating the 66-7 Warriors, who have the No. 1 seed throughout the playoffs effectively clinched but appear to be motivated by exceeding Chicago’s NBA record total of 72 wins in a season.
The Pistons, according to 538, have the best chance of the three teams vying for the East’s final playoff spot at victory tonight – a 39 percent chance to beat the Thunder. And 538 likes the Pistons’ chances to make the playoffs, too, with a 74 percent shot to Washington’s 23 percent and Chicago’s 4 percent.
“It would be nice to get one, especially with the few games that people dropped yesterday,” said Reggie Jackson after Tuesday’s shootaround for the game against his former team. “The way things are going down the stretch, we want to find a way to get as many wins as possible and secure our spot in the playoffs.”
The challenge with Oklahoma City is more difficult to address than it is to identify. The Thunder bludgeon teams with the NBA’s highest-scoring 1-2 punch, Kevin Durant (28.0 points per game) and Russell Westbrook (23.7) combining for more than 50 points.
“It’s not easy,” Stan Van Gundy said. “You’ve got to try to get bodies in front of Westbrook as much as you can, not let him in the paint and to the rim. That’s going to take more than one guy. And then you’re going to have to close out on shooters. They’re number one in the league in second-chance points because they have good offensive rebounders but also because Westbrook breaks you down so much off the dribble. It’s not easy, but the more you can keep the ball out of the paint the better off you’re going to be.”
The Pistons are 5-2 on their nine-game home stand, both losses to Atlanta. They have four home games remaining over their last eight, seven of which come against teams either in the playoff field or – in the cases of Washington and Chicago, their two direct competitors, and Dallas – on the outside clawing to get in.
