BOSTON CELTICS
Had they not shot 7-for-39 from 3-point range in Game 7 on their home floor, the Boston Celtics would have been the first Eastern Conference team in eight years to eliminate LeBron James from the postseason. They were the better team in the conference finals and just couldn’t get the job done. But now, James is in the Western Conference and the Celtics are adding Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving to that team that almost reached The Finals, with 21-year-old Jaylen Brown and 20-year-old Jayson Tatum only getting better.
ICYMI
One year after a summer that brought only four players back, the Celtics were relatively stable … Big man Robert Williams III was selected with the No. 27 pick in the Draft … Brad Wanamaker, a 29-year-old rookie guard who has played in Europe for the last seven seasons, was signed … Aron Baynes was re-signed to a two-year deal and Marcus Smart (restricted) was brought back on a four-year deal.
THREE POINTS
1. Most valuable Celtic. The bulk of the Celtics’ talent is on the perimeter, and as we saw last season, they can survive without one of their stars in the backcourt or on the wings. Al Horford, though, remains their most important player, a fulcrum on both ends of the floor, and the guy who outplayed both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid in the playoffs.
2. Size matters. The Celtics were the league’s most improved defensive team last season, in part because they got bigger at all three perimeter positions, allowing them to switch screens more often and more successfully. The return of the 6-foot-8 Hayward, who was on the league’s third-ranked defense in his last season in Utah, makes them no smaller on the perimeter.
3. Only so many minutes to go around. The biggest challenge for coach Brad Stevens may be keeping everybody happy. With the returns of Hayward and Irving, Marcus Morris and Terry Rozier will see a reduction in playing time and touches.
MAN ON THE SPOT
It’s the point guard’s job to make sure that everybody gets the touches they need on a team as talented as this. In his first season in Boston, Kyrie Irving registered career highs in both usage rate and true shooting percentage, playing efficiently with a heavier load than he had in Cleveland. But he ranked just 22nd in assist rate among the top 50 players in usage rate, and the Celtics ranked below the league average in both ball and player movement, seeing the league’s second biggest drop in the percentage of their field goals that were assisted. The offense held up pretty well without its starting point guard through the first 14 games of the playoffs (scoring more efficiently than it did in the regular season), and now Irving must reintegrate himself and make sure the Celtics make the most of all the talent they have on offense.
STARTING FIVE
Kyrie Irving | 24.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 5.1 apg
Has missed 94 games (including postseason) over the last four years, but is still just 26 years old.
Jaylen Brown | 14.5 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.0 spg
Versatile talent had the Celtics’ only two games of 30 or more points in the playoffs.
Gordon Hayward | 21.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 3.5 apg (’16-17)
Registered career highs in usage rate and true shooting percentage in 2016-17, then broke his leg in Game 1 last year.
Jayson Tatum | 13.9 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 1.6 apg
The 20 year old led the league in clutch shooting percentage and showed in the postseason that he’s ready to be a go-to guy late in games.
Al Horford | 12.9 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 4.7 apg
The league’s most versatile big man quieted some critics by leading the Celtics to within a game of The Finals.
KEY RESERVES
Aron Baynes | 6.0 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.1 apg
The defense is at its best with Baynes on the floor, though one particular matchup (Joel Embiid) was reason enough to bring him back.
Terry Rozier | 11.3 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 2.9 apg
A new contract for Smart puts Rozier’s future with the Celtics in doubt … but for now, the Celtics have both coming off the bench.
Marcus Smart | 10.2 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 4.8 apg
Where bad shooting and bad shots are negated by tough defense and shear hustle. Probably doesn’t have the same value on a different team.
BOTTOM LINE
The Celtics have talent, depth, defense and pretty good coach to put it all together. They’re the only team that has seen a win increase in each of the last four seasons, improving from 25-57 in Brad Stevens’ first year to 55-27 last season. They’ll likely make it five straight (with a record in the range of 61-21), will be the favorite to win the Eastern Conference, and are arguably the biggest threat to the Golden State Warriors’ quest for a third straight championship.
BROOKLYN NETS
In two-plus seasons under the leadership of Sean Marks and Kenny Atkinson, the Brooklyn Nets have done the right things to recover (as best they can) from the 2013 trade that stripped them of draft picks. They’ve been patient, they’ve drafted well with selections in the 20s, and they’ve developed fringe roster guys into useful players. But the Nets are still a long way from even being as good as they were (a second-round playoff team) in that season after the 2013 trade, and they’re still lacking a top-30 player to build around. The next year of the rebuild may be the most critical.
ICYMI
The contract of Timofey Mozgov was unloaded in a trade for the shorter contract of Dwight Howard, who was waived … A pair of Europeans (Dzanan Musa and Rodions Kurucs) were selected in the last Draft in which the Nets had to deal with the effects of the 2013 trade with Boston … Joe Harris was re-signed to a two-year contract … Jeremy Lin was traded to Atlanta … Vets were added to the bench via trade (Jared Dudley and Kenneth Faried) and free agency (Ed Davis and Shabazz Napier), but 2019 cap space was preserved.
THREE POINTS
1. More activity needed. The Nets have the structure of a good defense. Only 57 percent of their opponents’ shots, the lowest rate in the league, came from the restricted area or 3-point range last season. But within that structure, they weren’t very disruptive, ranking last in opponent turnover rate and last in opponent field goal percentage on those shots they forced in between the restricted area and the 3-point line. To take a step forward defensively, they’ll need to be more active.
2. Pace and space isn’t enough. The Nets have done the right things offensively, as well, playing with pace and shooting from the most efficient spots on the floor. But they haven’t shot particularly well on those shots, don’t have a dynamic star to create enough quality looks for others, and have turnover issues on that end as well.
3. Upgrades on the bench. There’s not a clear starter at point guard (Spencer Dinwiddie or D’Angelo Russell) or at the two (Allen Crabbe, Joe Harris or Caris LeVert), though the depth in the backcourt didn’t necessarily help a bench that ranked 26th in aggregate NetRtg last season. The veteran additions in the frontcourt could be key.
MAN ON THE SPOT
D’Angelo Russell has the tools. He’s a big guard with the potential to be triple-threat (shooting, driving and passing) off the dribble. But three years after being selected with the No. 2 pick in the 2015 draft, Russell still has a lot to prove. He’s had issues with consistency, decision-making and defense, and the Nets were a better team with him off the floor last season. In the final year of his rookie contract and with no certainty that he’s the team’s point guard of the future, it’s a huge season for Russell.
STARTING FIVE
D’Angelo Russell | 15.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 5.2 apg
Improved his shot selection (cutting down on mid-range attempts) and assist-turnover ratio after the All-Star break last season.
Allen Crabbe | 13.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.6 apg
He’s a 40 percent 3-point shooter over the last three seasons, but doesn’t offer enough otherwise.
DeMarre Carroll | 13.5 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 2.0 apg
Had a comeback season, scoring a career-high 13.5 points per game, after struggling through injuries in Toronto.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | 13.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 2.5 apg
Solid defender and has developed a decent mid-range jumper, but that’s not enough offensively.
Jarrett Allen | 8.2 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.2 bpg
Could be the starting center in Brooklyn, as well as an impact player on defense, for a long time.
KEY RESERVES
Ed Davis | 5.3 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 0.7 bpg
Was the league’s most prolific rebounder off the bench last season.
Spencer Dinwiddie | 12.6 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 6.6 apg
The finalist for the Kia Most Improved Player Award ranked second in the league with an assist-turnover ratio of 4.09.
Joe Harris | 10.8 ppg, 3.3 rpg, 1.6 apg
Didn’t just shoot 42 percent from 3-point range. He was also was one of the best finishers at the rim among guards.
Caris LeVert | 12.1 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 4.2 apg
Boasts an expansive skill set, but consistency has been an issue.
BOTTOM LINE
The Nets should take another step forward in their third season under Atkinson, but reaching the playoffs would require leap-frogging a couple of teams in the Charlotte-Detroit-Miami mix. It’s tough to see that happening unless more than one of their young players sees major development. A 36-46 mark would be a sign of further progress, though not ideal in regard to the Nets having their own Draft pick for the first time in six years.
PHILADELPHIA 76ERS
In each of the last two seasons, the Philadelphia 76ers have seen the league’s biggest increase in winning percentage, improving from 10-72 in 2015-16 to 52-30 in ’17-18. They saw a dramatic growth spurt late last season, winning their last 16 games of the regular season and cruising through a first-round series against the Miami Heat. But in the conference semifinals, Philly ran into the team they’ll be running into a lot in the next few years, and the Boston Celtics showed the Sixers that they still have more improving to do. The Process continues …
ICYMI
General manager Bryan Colangelo resigned in early June after an investigation into social media accounts run by his wife, and coach Brett Brown took over basketball operations through the Draft and free agency … After selecting local favorite Mikal Bridges with the No. 10 pick, the Sixers traded him for the No. 16 pick — Zhaire Smith, who broke his foot in August — and a 2021 first rounder … The Sixers were unable to use their cap space to sign (or trade for) a star .. Veterans J.J. Redick and Amir Johnson were re-signed to one-year deals (preserving 2019 cap space), but two keys to last season’s second-half surge — Marco Belinelli and Ersan Ilyasova — were lost in free agency … Veteran reserves Wilson Chandler and Mike Muscala were acquired via trades … Elton Brand was promoted to general manager just days before training camp opened.
THREE POINTS
1. Defense is a given. With a starting lineup that includes four guys — Ben Simmons, Robert Covington, Dario Saric and Joel Embiid — that are 6-foot-9 or taller, the Sixers can’t help but be a good defensive team. Last season, they were the only team that ranked in the top five in both opponent field goal percentage in the paint and in opponent effective field goal percentage on shots from outside the paint.
2. Offense is a question. The Sixers ranked fifth offensively after the All-Star break and led the postseason in both ball movement and player movement. The departures of Belinelli and Ilyasova mean that they’ll have to start over somewhat on that end of the floor, though Markelle Fultz could add a new dynamic to the offense.
3. Contrast in styles. Another challenge on offense is finding a balance between playing at a fast pace through Simmons and playing more deliberately through Embiid in the post. If they make it work, the Sixers have the best of both worlds.
MAN ON THE SPOT
Relative to the rest of the league, neither the Sixers nor Celtics had much roster turnover this summer. Both teams rank in the top seven in regard to the percentage of last season’s minutes played by guys that are still on the roster. But Boston is adding Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving to the team that eliminated Philadelphia in the playoffs. The Sixers will get a boost from the continued development of Simmons and Embiid, but a strong comeback from Fultz is their best chance to take another big step forward. While the guy (Jayson Tatum) the Celtics selected after swapping selections with Philly in the 2017 Draft (and getting an additional pick) had a terrific rookie season, Fultz struggled with his shot and his confidence, played in just 14 regular season games, and didn’t see the floor in the conference semis. For the Sixers to make the most of what they have, they’ll need Fultz to erase last season and make that trade look like less of a disaster.
STARTING FIVE
Ben Simmons | 15.8 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 8.2 apg
Fultz isn’t the only guy who needs to fix his jumper, but Simmons can do more without one. Already one of the league’s best finishers at the rim.
JJ Redick | 17.1 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 3.0 apg
The league’s best 3-point shooter (44 percent) over the last three seasons (minimum 500 attempts) opens things up with his spacing and movement.
Robert Covington | 12.6 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.7 spg
Led the league in deflections, but really struggled (33 percent shooting) in the postseason, losing his starting job in the Boston series.
Dario Saric | 14.6 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 2.6 apg
A do-it-all forward who was one of the league’s most improved 3-point shooters (39 percent, up from 31 percent as a rookie) last season.
Joel Embiid | 22.9 ppg, 11.0 rpg, 1.8 bpg
Should be a Kia MVP and Kia Defensive Player of the Year candidate for the next several seasons. Conditioning was an issue in the playoffs.
KEY RESERVES
Wilson Chandler | 10.0 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 2.1 apg
Not the ideal fit next to Simmons and Embiid, but can play both forward positions.
Markelle Fultz | 7.1 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 3.8 apg
One of three players (teammate T.J. McConnell was another) to record a triple-double off the bench last season.
Mike Muscala | 7.6 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.0 apg
The Ilyasova replacement took more than half his shots from 3-point range last season.
BOTTOM LINE
With cap space next summer (and the assets to make a trade before then), the Sixers still have some cards to play. As they stand, they’re one of the three best teams in the Eastern Conference, with two young stars that will win them a lot of games. They won’t see the league’s biggest win increase this year, but another jump to 58-24 is realistic. Then it’s all about matchups in the playoffs, and Embiid may be the one guy teams like Boston and Toronto can’t deal with.
NEW YORK KNICKS
The New York Knicks are starting over again, with general manager Scott Perry (hired in July of 2017) bringing in new coach David Fizdale to lead one of two Eastern Conference teams that hasn’t seen the playoffs in the last five years. The Knicks’ playoff drought will likely reach six years, because they’ll be without their best player — Kristaps Porzingis, who suffered a torn ACL in early February — for at least some of the season. That doesn’t mean it will necessarily be a lost season in New York. Competing with the best teams in the league will be a struggle, but the next seven months are an opportunity for Fizdale to build a foundation for the future, establishing a culture and a standard for how the new Knicks will play on both ends of the floor.
ICYMI
Coach Jeff Hornacek was fired after his second season in New York … Fizdale (fired in Memphis last season) was hired … Versatile forward Kevin Knox (No. 9) and athletic big man Mitchell Robinson (No. 36) were selected in the Draft … Enes Kanter exercised his $18 million player option to stay another year … Former No. 5 pick Mario Hezonja was signed to a one-year contract.
THREE POINTS
1. Patience with Porzingis. Priority No. 1 for the Knicks is making sure that Porzingis is healthy and ready to go for the start of next season, when he’ll be more than 18 months out from his ACL tear. That doesn’t mean that he shouldn’t play this year, but that the Knicks should be cautious every step of the way.
2. Get behind the line. With or without Porzingis, the Knicks will need to cut down on mid-range shots. No team had a higher ratio of mid-range attempts to 3-point attempts last season, an issue left over from the triangle-offense era. League-wide, 3-point attempts (1.2 points per attempt) are worth much more than shots from between the paint and the 3-point line (0.8 points per attempt).
3. Can he coach ’em up on defense? Fizdale had the league’s seventh-ranked defense in his one full season in Memphis (and only one team improved more defensively from the previous season), but the Knicks have a bad history on that end of the floor. They’ve been a worse-than-average defensive team in 16 of the last 17 seasons, and don’t exactly have the personnel to turn things around quickly.
MAN ON THE SPOT
While the Knicks wait on Porzingis, the development of their other young players takes precedence. Knox has the potential to be special, but he’s still a teenager and needs to get his feet wet. Frank Ntilikina, however, needs to take a serious step forward after an uninspiring rookie season and a summer of work. The No. 8 pick of the 2017 draft has already shown that he can make an impact defensively, but he has a long way to go on the other end of the floor. His effective field goal percentage of 41 percent ranked last among 269 players who attempted at least 300 shots last season, and his 7.4 drives per 36 minutes ranked 107th among players who averaged at least 10 minutes per game in 40 games or more. Playing on the ball, Ntilikina needs to be more dynamic with the dribble. Playing off the ball, he needs to be a much better shooter.
STARTING FIVE
Frank Ntilikina | 5.9 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 3.2 apg
The Knicks allowed just 96 points per 100 possessions, a rate better than the league’s best defense, with Ntilikina and Porzingis on the floor together.
Courtney Lee | 12.0 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 2.4 apg
One of nine players who have shot better than 40 percent on at least 250 3-point attempts in each of the last two seasons. Still loves the mid-range.
Tim Hardaway Jr. | 17.5 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 2.7 apg
Saw a jump in scoring average with a drop in efficiency. Worst 3-point shooter (32 percent) among 59 players with at least 350 attempts last season.
Kevin Knox | 15.6 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 1.4 apg (Kentucky)
Could be the kind of versatile and athletic forward that every team is looking for. He’s 6-foot-9 and only 19 years old.
Enes Kanter | 14.1 ppg, 11.0 rpg, 1.5 apg
One of the league’s best offensive rebounders and a solid finisher inside, but doesn’t shoot from the outside and remains a defensive liability.
KEY RESERVES
Mario Hezonja | 9.6 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 1.4 apg
Taking a chance on the former No. 5 pick was a low-risk move.
Emmanuel Mudiay | 8.6 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 3.2 apg
In the last year of his rookie deal, the former No. 7 pick has much to prove.
Kristaps Porzingis | 22.7 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 2.4 bpg
It was on defense where the Knicks fell off more after his injury in early February.
BOTTOM LINE
With a glaring lack of two-way players on the current roster, it’s going to be a rough season in New York, even if Porzingis returns sooner than expected. Perry and Fizdale sound willing to play the long game and they’ll need to take their lumps in their first year together, to the tune of something like a 20-62 record, which will provide an opportunity to add another Lottery pick to the mix in 2019.
TORONTO RAPTORS
The Raptors had a good thing going, with the Eastern Conference’s best regular-season record over the last five years, capped by a season in which they won a franchise-rejcord 59 games and were the only team to rank in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency. But after a third straight playoff exit at the hands of LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers, it was time for changes. Coach of the Year Dwane Casey was firedand All-Star DeMar DeRozan was traded for Kawhi Leonard, the Kia MVP candidate who became disgruntled in San Antonio. The ceiling has been raised, but it remains to be seen just how healthy Leonard is, just how well he’ll fit with his new team, and whether or not he’d be willing to stay in Toronto for more than a year.
ICYMI
The franchise’s all-time winningest coach — Casey — was fired after the Raptors were swept by the Cleveland Cavaliers for the second straight year, with assistant Nick Nurse eventually being promoted to the head job … Kia Sixth Man of the Year finalist Fred VanVleet was re-signed with a two-year deal … The franchise’s all-time leading scorer — DeMar DeRozan — was traded, along with Jakob Poeltl, to San Antonio for Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green … Veteran Greg Monroe was signed as the new back-up center.
THREE POINTS
1. Bombs away. Last season’s Raptors saw the league’s second biggest increase in the percentage of their shots that came from 3-point range (38 percent, up from 29 percent in 2016-17). That number will likely continue to increase under Nurse. In his two seasons as coach of the Rio Grande Valley Vipers (2011-12 and ’12-13), the team took 33 percent of its shots, a rate that was four times the G League average, from 3-point range.
2. Best bench in the NBA. The Raptors had the league’s best bench in the regular season, with a five-man unit that outscored its opponents by 17 points per 100 possessions. They’ve lost one member of that unit (Poeltl) and may choose to play smaller with their second unit, but still have tremendous depth, which will serve them well … in the regular season at least.
3. Bad at defending the best. Last season, the Raptors allowed just 99 points per 100 possessions against teams that ranked 11-30 in offensive efficiency, but 115 points per 100 possessions against the league’s top 10 offenses. That was the biggest differential in the league, the latter number ranked 29th, and it was a top-10 offense that eviscerated the Toronto defense in the conference semis. They’ll surely be a strong defensive team overall, but will need to figure out how to better defend the league’s best.
MAN ON THE SPOT
For the first time in his tenure as Raptors general manager, Masai Ujiri took a big swing. And really, he took two, replacing Casey with a first-time NBA coach and then trading for Leonard. Casey’s leadership will surely be missed, but Nurse could take the offense to a new level. The Leonard trade will turn out to be a home run … if Leonard is healthy, if he’s engaged, and if he doesn’t leave next summer. There are a lot of franchises that would love to have the success Toronto has had over the last five years, but Ujiri wasn’t satisfied and had a summer that will take the Raptors in a new direction and help define his legacy as an NBA executive.
STARTING FIVE
Kyle Lowry | 16.2 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 6.9 apg
Only player who has shot better than 40 percent on at least 250 pull-up 3-point attempts over the last two seasons.
Danny Green | 8.6 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 1.1 bpg
3-point shooting has slipped over the last few seasons, but still an impact defender at 6-foot-6.
Kawhi Leonard | 16.2 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 2.3 apg
All eyes on him. When healthy, he’s one of the league’s best two-way players with room to grow, especially as a creator on offense.
Serge Ibaka | 12.6 ppg, 6.3 rpg, 1.3 bpg
Has the tools to be the ideal small-ball center, but was almost unplayable in the conference semis and is owed $45 million over the next two seasons.
Jonas Valanciunas | 12.7 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 0.9 bpg
Added 3-pointers to his repertoire, but still ranked 11th on the team in fourth-quarter minutes last season. Just not quick enough defensively.
KEY RESERVES
OG Anunoby | 5.9 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 0.7 spg
Could be the next Kawhi Leonard and will play alongside him in the Raptors’ best defensive lineups.
C.J. Miles | 10.0 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 0.8 apg
Led the league in 3-point attempts per 36 minutes. His aggressiveness opens things up for others.
Pascal Siakam | 7.3 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 0.5 bpg
Another small-ball center option, though he played almost exclusively at power forward last season.
Fred VanVleet | 8.6 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 3.2 apg
Boxscore numbers don’t stand out, but the Raptors were at their best with him on the floor.
BOTTOM LINE
There’s a clear top three in the Eastern Conference, with plenty of variables that will determine how the Celtics, Sixers and Raptors sort themselves out. The Toronto variables start with Leonard, but continue with the development of Anunoby and Siakam, versatile forwards who could open up a bevy of lineup possibilities and make this the best defensive team in the league. The potential is there for another franchise-record win total, but some early growing pains could result in something more like a 57-25 record.
